Lacanna, Giorgio

Monitoring volcanic activity is a complex task, given the intricate nature of volcanic processes and the diverse eruptive styles exhibited by different volcanoes. Early Detection (ED) systems have emerged as indispensable tools for mitigating potential risks associated with volcanic eruptions. The effectiveness of these systems is contingent upon their ability to provide timely and accurate alerts, as false alarms or missed warnings can lead to economic repercussions and pose risks to infrastructure and human safety. Evaluating the reliability of the ED systems may be paramount not only for effective hazard mitigation but also for facilitating the implementation and optimization of an ED model. However, developing an ED model is a challenging and labor-intensive endeavor, also requiring a deep understanding of advanced techniques and a meticulous calibration of various parameters. In response to these challenges, we present the Framework for Evaluation of Early Detection Systems (FEEDS). FEEDS is a comprehensive Python-based package designed to automatically assess the generalization capability of generic ED systems through cross-validation. The framework introduces a generic class representing the ED model identified solely through data, enabling a systematic assessment based on essential predictive parameters, including True Positive Rate, False Discovery Rate, prediction time, and Fraction of Time in Alarm, by performing a simulation. To validate the effectiveness of FEEDS, we utilized tiltmeter and strainmeter data recorded at Stromboli volcano between 2007 and 2019. These datasets, managed by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Università di Firenze, were employed to implement FEEDS with a customized model for the early detection of the paroxysmal activity affecting the volcano during the period of the study, demonstrating the practical applicability and reliability of this framework in real-world volcanic monitoring scenarios. FEEDS may represent a valuable contribution to the ongoing efforts to enhance ED systems and their application in mitigating volcanic hazards. The development of a robust framework that automates the standard evaluation process not only streamlines system implementation but also reduces user efforts and establishes a common ground for assessing the reliability and performance of different ED models, contributing significantly to the advancement of volcanic monitoring capabilities.

Tephra dispersal and fallout resulting from explosive activity of Mt. Etna (Italy) represent a significant threat to the surrounding inhabited areas as well as to aviation operations. An earlywarning system aimed at foreseeing the onset of paroxysmal activity has been developed, combining a thermal infrared camera, infrasonic network, and a weather radar. In this way, it is possible to identify the onset of a lava fountain as well as to determine the associated mass eruption rate (MER) and top plume height (HTP). The new methodology, defined as the paroxysmal early-warning (PEW) alert system, is based on the analysis of some explosive eruptions that occurred between 2011 and 2021 at Etna, simultaneously observed by the thermal camera and infrasound systems dislocated around the summit eruptive craters, and by the weather radar, located at about 32 km from the summit craters. This work represents an important step towards the mitigation of the potential impact associated with the tephra dispersal and fallout during paroxysms at Etna, which can be applied to other volcanoes with similar activity and monitoring strategies.

On March 5, 2022, a 12 kg meteoroid crossed the sky above Central Italy and was observed by three different observational systems: the PRISMA all-sky camera network (10 stations), the Italian national seismic network (61 stations), and a 4-element infrasound array. The corresponding datasets, each with its own resolution, provided three independent assessments of the trajectory, size and speed of the meteoroid. The bolide traveled across central Italy with an azimuth of 102 degrees, becoming visible at about 91 km above sea level with a velocity of about 15.4 km/s. Its visible trajectory lasted about 15 s. Reasonably, the residual portion of the ablated bolide terminated its path in the Adriatic Sea and could not be recovered. Seismic and infrasound data well match optical observations detecting the bolide Mach cone at 68 km above sea level with a back azimuth of 25 degrees with respect to the array. By comparing results from the three different systems, discrepancies are within the estimated uncertainties, thus confirming the mutual consistency of the adopted methodologies. Therefore, this study shows that different approaches can be integrated to improve the detection capability for bolide crossing the sky in monitored regions.

Improving volcanic gas monitoring techniques is central to better understanding open-vent, persistently degassing volcanoes. SO2 cameras are increasingly used in volcanic gas studies, but observations are commonly limited to one single camera alone viewing the volcanic plume from a specific viewing direction. Here, we report on high frequency (0.5 Hz) systematic measurements of the SO2 flux at Stromboli, covering a 1-year long observation period (June 2017-June 2018), obtained from two permanent SO2 cameras using the same automated algorithm, but imaging the plume from two different viewing directions. Our aim is to experimentally validate the robustness of automatic SO2 camera for volcano monitoring and to demonstrate the advantage of using two co-exposed SO2 camera stations to better capturing degassing dynamics at open-vent volcanoes. The SO2 flux time-series derived from the two SO2 camera stations exhibit good match, demonstrating the robustness of the automatic SO2 camera method. Our high-temporal resolution SO2 records resolve individual Strombolian explosions as transient, repetitive gas bursts produced by the sudden release of over pressurized gas pockets and scoriae. Calculations show that explosive degassing activity accounts for ∼10% of the total SO2 emission budget (dominated by passive degassing) during mild regular open-vent activity. We show that the temporal variations of the explosive SO2 flux go in tandem with changes in total SO2 flux and VLP seismicity, implicating some commonality in the source processes controlling passive degassing and explosive activity. We exploited the spatial resolution of SO2 camera to discriminate degassing at two distinct regions of the crater area, and to minimize biases due by the station position respect to the target plume. We find that the SO2 fluxes from southwest-central (SWCC) and northeast (NEC) crater areas oscillate coherently but those from the NEC are more sensitive to the changes in the volcanic intensity. We interpret this as due to preferential gas/magma channeling into the structurally weaker north-eastern portion of the crater terrace in response to increasing supply rate of buoyant, bubble-rich magma in the shallow plumbing system.

Open-vent volcanic activity is typically sustained by ascent and degassing of shallow magma, in which the rate of magma supply to the upper feeding system largely exceeds the rate of magma eruption. Such unbalance between supplied (input) and erupted (output) magma rates is thought to result from steady, degassing-driven, convective magma overturning in a shallow conduit/feeding dyke. Here, we characterize shallow magma circulation at Stromboli volcano by combining independent observations of heat (Volcanic Radiative Power; via satellite images) and gas (SO2 , via UV camera) output in a temporal interval (from August 1, 2018 to April 30, 2020) encompassing the summer 2019 effusive eruption and two paroxysmal explosions (on July 3 and August 28, 2019). We show that, during the phase of ordinary strombolian explosive activity that preceded the 2019 effusive eruption, the average magma input rate (0.1-0.2 m3 /s) exceeds the magma eruption rate (0.001-0.01 m3 /s) by ∼2 orders of magnitude. Conversely, magma input and output rates converge to an average of ∼0.4 m3 /s during the summer 2019 summit effusion, implying an overall suppression of magma recycling back into the feeding system, and hence of excess degassing. We find that, during the effusive eruption, the peak in SO2 emissions lags behind the thermal emission peak by ∼27 days, suggesting that magma output, feeding the lava flow field, initially dominates over magma input in the conduit. We propose that this conduit mass unloading, produced by this initial phase of the effusive eruption, leads to an overall decompression (of up to 30 Pa/s) of the shallow plumbing system, ultimately causing ascent of less-dense, volatile-rich magma batch(es) from depth, enhanced explosive activity, and elevated SO2 fluxes culminating into a paroxysmal explosion on August 28. Our results demonstrate that combined analysis of thermal and SO2 flux time-series paves the way to improved understanding of shallow magmatic system dynamics at open-vent volcanoes, and of the transition from explosive to effusive activity regimes.

Volcano seismicity is one of the key parameters to understand magma dynamics of erupting volcanoes. However, the physical process at the origin of the resulting complex and broadband seismic signals remains unclear. Syn-eruptive very long period (VLP) seismic signals have been explained in terms of the sudden expansion of gas pockets rising in the liquid melt. Their origin is linked to a magma dynamics which triggers the explosive process occurring before the explosive onset. We provide evidence based on acoustic, thermal, and ground deformation data to demonstrate that VLP signals at Stromboli are generated at the top of the magma column mainly after the explosion onset. We show that VLP amplitude and duration scale with the eruptive flux which induces a decompression of 103-104 Pa involving the uppermost ~ 250 m of the feeding conduit. The seismic VLP source represents the final stage of a ~ 200 s long charge and discharge mechanism the magma column has to release excess gas accumulated at the base of a denser and degassed magma mush. The position of the VLP seismic source coincides with the centroid of the shallow mush plug and tracks elevation changes of the magma free surface.

The ordinarily benign activity of basaltic volcanoes is periodically interrupted by violent paroxysmal explosions ranging in size from Hawaiian to Plinian in the most extreme examples. These paroxysms often occur suddenly and with limited or no precursors, leaving their causal mechanisms still incompletely understood. Two such events took place in summer 2019 at Stromboli, a volcano otherwise known for its persistent mild open-vent activity, resulting in one fatality and damage to infrastructure. Here, we use a post hoc analysis and reinterpretation of volcanic gas compositions and fluxes acquired at Stromboli to show that the two paroxysms were preceded by detectable escalations in volcanic plume CO2 degassing weeks to months beforehand. Our results demonstrate that volcanic gas CO2 is a key driver of explosions and that the preparatory periods ahead of explosions in basaltic systems can be captured by precursory CO2 leakage from deeply stored mafic magma.

At open-vent basaltic volcanoes, resolving the activity escalation that heralds larger, potentially harmful eruptions is challenged by the persistent mild ordinary activity, which often masks the precursory unrest signals related to heightened magma transport from depth. Gas (SO2 and CO2) fluxes at surface are controlled by rate of magma transport and degassing within the magma plumbing system, and thus constitute key parameters to infer deep magma budget and dynamics. Here, we use several year-long (2014-present) gas observations at Etna and Stromboli volcanoes, in Sicily, to provide new evidence for the utility of long-term instrumental gas monitoring in real-time detecting the early phase of unrest prior eruption, and for characterizing syn-eruptive dynamics. To this aim, we use information from a gas monitoring network of permanent ultraviolet (UV) cameras and automatic Multi-Gas instruments that, combined with geophysical observations, allow characterizing changes in degassing and eruptive dynamics at high temporal/spatial resolution. Our results show that the paroxysmal (lava fountaining) explosions that periodically interrupted persistent open-vent activity on Etna (during 2014-2020) were accompanied by systematic, repetitive SO2 emission patterns prior, during, and after eruptions. These allow us identifying the characteristic pre- syn- and post- eruptive degassing regimes, and to establish thresholds in the SO2 flux record that mark phases of unrest. On Stromboli, the much improved temporal/spatial resolution of UV cameras allows resolving the escalation of regular strombolian activity, and its concentration toward its North-east crater, that heralds onset of effusive eruptions. During effusive eruption, although magma level drops in the conduit and explosive summit activity ceases, UV camera observations can still detect explosive gas bursts deep in the conduit while no infrasonic activity is detected. Combining the UV camera-derived SO2 fluxes with CO2/SO2 ratio records measured by the Multi-Gas, the CO2 flux can be inferred. We find that such CO2 flux time-series can allow tracking degassing of deeply stored mafic magma months before Stromboli"s eruptions. We finally show that remotely sensed gas emission and thermal activity can be combined together to characterize the dynamics of shallow magmatic system prior to and during unrest, ultimately helping to define timing of magma re-charging events driving the eruptions.

The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma rising from depth into a shallow (<400 m) resident magma conduit. We show that the duration and amplitude of this inflation trend scales with the eruption magnitude, indicating that the explosive dynamics obey the same (scale-invariant) conduit process. This scale-invariance of pre-explosion ground deformation may usher in a new era of short-term eruption forecasting.

Destructive tsunamis are most often generated by large earthquakes occurring at subduction interfaces, but also other “atypical” sources—defined as crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources altogether—may cause significant tsunami threats. Tsunamis may indeed be generated by different sources, such as earthquakes, submarine or coastal landslides, volcano-related phenomena, and atmospheric perturbations. The consideration of atypical sources is important worldwide, but it is especially prominent in complex tectonic settings such as the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, or the Indonesian archipelago. The recent disasters in Indonesia in 2018, caused by the Palu-Sulawesi magnitude Mw 7.5 crustal earthquake and by the collapse of the Anak-Krakatau volcano, recall the importance of such sources. Dealing with atypical sources represents a scientific, technical, and computational challenge, which depends on the capability of quantifying and managing uncertainty efficiently and of reducing it with accurate physical modelling. Here, we first introduce the general framework in which tsunami threats are treated, and then we review the current status and the expected future development of tsunami hazard quantifications and of the tsunami warning systems in Italy, with a specific focus on the treatment of atypical sources. In Italy, where the memory of historical atypical events like the 1908 Messina earthquake or the relatively recent 2002 Stromboli tsunami is still vivid, specific attention has been indeed dedicated to the progressive development of innovative strategies to deal with such atypical sources. More specifically, we review the (national) hazard analyses and their application for coastal planning, as well as the two operating tsunami warning systems: the national warning system for seismically generated tsunamis (SiAM), whose upstream component—the CAT-INGV—is also a Tsunami Service Provider of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) coordinated by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group established by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the local warning system for tsunamis generated by volcanic slides along the Sciara del Fuoco of Stromboli volcano. Finally, we review the state of knowledge about other potential tsunami sources that may generate significant tsunamis for the Italian coasts, but that are not presently considered in existing tsunami warning systems. This may be considered the first step towards their inclusion in the national tsunami hazard and warning programs.