Coltelli, Mauro

During the last 20 kyr, the Etna volcano has been characterized by almost continuous summit eruptions and by less frequent—yet definitely more destructive—flank eruptions issuing at <1,000 m asl altitudes and reaching the Ionian Sea. The chronological framework of pre‐historic (pre‐2,750 yr BP) flank eruptions is supported only by few radiometric and paleomagnetic ages. Here we paleomagnetically investigated 15 Holocene lava flows from SE Etna lower slopes and dated 12 of them. Paleomagnetic dating at Etna relies on best method pre‐requisites: European location where reference geomagnetic models are well defined, and detailed stratigraphic evidence is available. We sampled 45 sites (450 oriented cores) from lavas loosely constrained in the 19,000–2,000 yr BP age window. Ten eruptions yielded a minimum 40% refinement with respect to initial age constraints, with four lava flows achieving refinement up to 90%. We obtained 620–1,398 yr (998 yr on average) dating accuracy for three flows bracketed in relatively short (1,398–1,644 yr) independent age constraints. By contrast, five flows characterized by longer 6,567–7,439 yr initial age windows yielded multiple age solutions. Finally, four lava flows with 1,644–6,567 yr‐long initial age windows were tightly dated with 120–680 yr age ranges. We conclude that at volcanoes where best paleomagnetic dating prerequisite are fulfilled, singular solutions are expected for 30% of the analyzed flows and, significant refinements for the others. Seven kyr seems to represent an independent age window threshold length to get or not significant dating refinements.

Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code

Mt. Etna, in Italy, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, producing several explosive events in recent years. Those eruptions form high eruption columns that often reach the top of the troposphere (and sometimes even the lower part of the stratosphere) and create several disruptions to air traffic, mainly to the Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, which is about 20 NM (~ 37 km; NM = Nautical Miles) away from the summit craters and is located in the main wind direction. In Italy, the institution responsible for volcano monitoring is the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). In 2007, the INGV, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) in Catania was appointed as “State Volcano Observatory” (SVO) and, in 2014, sent the first Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) message. Since that moment, several VONA messages have been sent, mainly due to the high frequency of Etna activity. In order to facilitate and speed in the generation and the dispatch of the VONA messages, a computer-assisted procedure has been designed and built to help the work done by the volcanologist on duty and by the two shift workers of the 24/7 Control Room of INGV-OE. Consequently, information on the explosive activity can be quickly provided to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in Toulouse and national air traffic offices, reducing risks to aviation operations. In this work, we describe how the computer-assisted procedure works, addressing the main advantages and possible improvements. We retain that a similar approach could be easily applied to other volcano observatories worldwide.

The persistent open-vent degassing of Mt. Etna is often punctuated by monthslong paroxysmal sequences characterized by episodes of violent Strombolian to lava fountaining activity. Understanding these gas-fueled transitions from quiescence to eruption requires routine measurement of gas fluxes. Here, we report SO2 flux measurements, obtained from a permanent UV camera system, collected over a two-year-long period spanning two paroxysmal sequences of Etna’s New South East Crater (NSEC) in December 2020/April 2021 and May/ October 2021. In both cases, SO2 flux increased from ≤ 3250 Mg/day during “ordinary” activity to ≥ 4200 Mg/day. We interpret these distinct SO2 degassing regimes in light of seismic and thermal observations and drawing on numerical simulations of sulfur degassing constrained by parental melt sulfur contents in Etna’s hawaiites. We find that initiation of a paroxysmal sequence results from an approximate doubling of the time-averaged rate of magma supply (and degassing) above the sulfur exsolution level (~150 MPa pressure), to >4m3/s. This corroborates recent models that argue for the triggering of paroxysmal sequences by escalating supply of volatile-rich magma to a reservoir ~3–4 km below the summit region. The non-stationary nature of magma flow and volcanic degassing we identify highlights the need for sustained surveillance to characterize long-term atmospheric budgets of volcanic volatiles

This work presents the first results of the PANACEA project regarding the assessment of different volcano-related hazards at Mt. Etna (lava and pyroclastic flows, tephra fallout and earthquakes) by exploiting data deriving from the volcano’s history with accurate physical–mathematical models. Volcano-related hazards are distributed differently on Etna—from the deserted summit area down to the densely populated flanks—but must be considered together for long-term territorial planning.

The Valle del Bove is a profound and wide scar on the east Etna flank witnessing the Holocene main volcanotectonic event of the volcano, frequently invaded by lava flows during the last centuries. The Valle del Bove slope failure produced the Milo debris avalanche deposit on the lower east flank that is partially covered by the Mongibello lavas and a pyroclastic succession. In this paper, we constrain for the first time the age of the Milo debris avalanche deposit and the overlying lava succession exposed at three quarries recently caved at the valley mouth through a multidisciplinary approach integrating stratigraphic and petrographic analyses, 14C, and paleomagnetic dating. In particular, 14C age determinations of the Milo debris avalanche deposit indicate that the initial stage of the catastrophic flank collapse of the Valle del Bove occurred at 7478–7134 BCE during the Mesolithic age. Conversely, the main portion of the lava succession filling the valley floor emplaced after the sub- Plinian picritic eruption occurred at 2579–2278 BCE (FS tephra layer) consistently with the increasing occurrence frequency of flank eruptions documented in the geological record of Etna during the past 4000 yrs. Paleomagnetic dating highlighted that in the study area the sub-Plinian eruption was followed by two quasicontemporaneous flank eruptions during the Late Copper age (2600–2400 BCE), whereas other two flank eruptions occurred during Greek-Roman and Medieval ages. These results have relevant implications on the stratigraphy and evolution of Etna, particularly on the Valle del Bove initial collapse and the relative emplacement of the Chiancone detritic-alluvial sequence.

In September 2021, the La Fossa crater at Vulcano, in Italy, entered a new phase of unrest. We discuss a set of monitoring parameters included in the INGV surveillance network, which closely tracked the sequence of effects related to the crisis. The low-frequency local seismicity sharply increased, while the GPS and tiltmeter networks recorded the inflation of the cone, as an effect of fluid expansion in the hydrothermal system. Gravity variations were probably the effects of fast processes within shallow sources. The anomalies in soil CO2 flux, fumarole temperature, and in plume SO2 flux marked the strong increase in the vapor output from crater fumaroles. The signs of the impending crisis had been evident in the chemical and isotopic composition of fumarole gases since July 2021. These geochemical anomalies were clearly indicative of the enhanced input of gases from a magmatic source. In October, the massive degassing also influenced the areas at the base of the cone. In some areas, soil CO2 degassing and the thermal aquifer recorded strong anomalies. By early November, the crisis reached its acme. Afterward, the monitored parameters started a slow and discontinuous decreasing trend although remaining, some of them, sensibly above the background for several months. The multidisciplinary approach proved decisive for the interpretation of the underlying processes acting in the different phases of the unrest, thus allowing a consistent evaluation of the multiple hazards.

In the last decade, video surveillance cameras have experienced a great technological advance, making capturing and processing of digital images and videos more reliable in many fields of application. Hence, video-camera-based systems appear as one of the techniques most widely used in the world for monitoring volcanoes, providing a low cost and handy tool in emergency phases, although the processing of large data volumes from continuous acquisition still represents a challenge. To make these systems more effective in cases of emergency, each pixel of the acquired images must be assigned to class labels to categorise them and to locate and segment the observable eruptive activity. This paper is focused on the detection and segmentation of volcanic ash plumes using convolutional neural networks. Two well-established architectures, the segNet and the U-Net, have been used for the processing of in situ images to validate their usability in the field of volcanology. The dataset fed into the two CNN models was acquired from in situ visible video cameras from a ground-based network (Etna_NETVIS) located on Mount Etna (Italy) during the eruptive episode of 24th December 2018, when 560 images were captured from three different stations: CATANIA-CUAD, BRONTE, and Mt. CAGLIATO. In the preprocessing phase, data labelling for computer vision was used, adding one meaningful and informative label to provide eruptive context and the appropriate input for the training of the machine-learning neural network. Methods presented in this work offer a generalised toolset for volcano monitoring to detect, segment, and track ash plume emissions. The automatic detection of plumes helps to significantly reduce the storage of useless data, starting to register and save eruptive events at the time of unrest when a volcano leaves the rest status, and the semantic segmentation allows volcanic plumes to be tracked automatically and allows geometric parameters to be calculated.

“Lipari obsidian and Neolithic human communities in the Aeolian islands” is a project aimed at studying the connection between obsidian flows on the island of Lipari and Neolithic populations on the Aeolian archipelago, in Italy. As it is well known, obsidian is of particular interest to trace prehistorical trading patterns; indeed, Lipari obsidian has the widest distribution and has been found in southern France, Dalmazia, Sicily and mainland Italy. The project outputs will give a general vision of both archaeological and volcanological aspects through the stratigraphic and radiometric dating of eruptions which produced obsidian, in relationship with the first phases of the human settlements and row material exploitation. To reach this goal, we are considering both raw materials (geological samples) from different flows and artefacts from Neolithic settlements (archaeological samples) on the Aeolian islands, and performing fissiontrack dating to get the age of obsidian sources and artefacts. Obtained results are expected to shed some new light on the raw material procurement and on the ability of the Neolithic populations to move from their locations, with particular attention to the consequences of environmental features on the first human settlements on the Aeolian islands.

We present a new use of the well-known Failure Forecast Method (FFM) to track the evolution of a volcanic unrest by modeling the acceleration of monitoring data. In particular, we analyze the temporal rates of GPS data collected by INGV network on Vulcano Island in 2021-2022. The FFM interprets monitoring signals, typically ground displacement or seismicity, as possible eruptive precursors, and provides quantitative forecasts through a nonlinear regression of their temporal rate X: dX/dt=AXα. We make the assumption that the nonlinear trend of the signals observed in the previous weeks will continue in the future, and accelerate in the same way as brittle materials subject to a constant stress while approaching their rupture. Therefore, under this assumption, the FFM calculates a time limit for the continuation of the observed nonlinear acceleration, called failure time. Our forecasts are expressed in terms of the time left, i.e. the waiting time before the volcanic system of Vulcano reaches a potentially critical state. We calculate the mean, the 5th and 95th percentile values of the estimate, because of the uncertainty affecting the model parameters A and α. However, the system, during its future evolution, can either strengthen its accelerating trend and shorten this time limit, or weaken the acceleration and extend it. For this reason, we performed a daily retrospective analysis of the FFM estimates in the last year. In this way, the method tracks the potential waiting time and highlights the most critical phases and their temporal evolution. During the acme of the unrest crisis, in mid-October 2021, the minimum waiting time estimated was of the order of 10 days for the station that registered the largest displacement. We compared the horizontal and vertical displacements, and the areal dilatation of the ground, different GPS stations and time intervals of the nonlinear regression.