Scollo, Simona

On 21 May 2023, a hidden eruption occurred at the Southeast Crater (SEC) of Etna (Italy); indeed, bad weather prevented its direct and remote observation. Tephra fell toward the southwest, and two lava flows propagated along the SEC’s southern and eastern flanks. The monitoring system of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia testified to its occurrence. We analyzed the seismic and infrasound signals to constrain the temporal evolution of the fountain, which lasted about 5 h. We finally reached Etna’s summit two weeks later and found an unexpected pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposit covering the southern lava flow at its middle portion. We performed unoccupied aerial system and field surveys to reconstruct in 3D the SEC, lava flows, and PDC deposits and to collect some samples. The data allowed for detailed mapping, quantification, and characterization of the products. The resulting lava flows and PDC deposit volumes were (1.54 ± 0.47) × 106 m3 and (1.30 ± 0.26) × 105 m3, respectively. We also analyzed ground-radar and satellite data to evaluate that the plume height ranges between 10 and 15 km. This work is a comprehensive analysis of the fieldwork, UAS, volcanic tremor, infrasound, radar, and satellite data. Our results increase awareness of the volcanic activity and potential dangers for visitors to Etna’s summit area.

Mt. Etna, in Italy, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, producing several explosive events in recent years. Those eruptions form high eruption columns that often reach the top of the troposphere (and sometimes even the lower part of the stratosphere) and create several disruptions to air traffic, mainly to the Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, which is about 20 NM (~ 37 km; NM = Nautical Miles) away from the summit craters and is located in the main wind direction. In Italy, the institution responsible for volcano monitoring is the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). In 2007, the INGV, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) in Catania was appointed as “State Volcano Observatory” (SVO) and, in 2014, sent the first Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) message. Since that moment, several VONA messages have been sent, mainly due to the high frequency of Etna activity. In order to facilitate and speed in the generation and the dispatch of the VONA messages, a computer-assisted procedure has been designed and built to help the work done by the volcanologist on duty and by the two shift workers of the 24/7 Control Room of INGV-OE. Consequently, information on the explosive activity can be quickly provided to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in Toulouse and national air traffic offices, reducing risks to aviation operations. In this work, we describe how the computer-assisted procedure works, addressing the main advantages and possible improvements. We retain that a similar approach could be easily applied to other volcano observatories worldwide.

Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code

Atmospheric injection of volcanic ash during eruptions is a threat to aviation. Reliable forecast of airborne ash dispersal relies on empirical and numerical models. Key inputs into these models are so-called eruption source parameters such as the rate at which pyroclastic material is ejected from the vent and the maximum height of eruptive columns. Here, we use infrasound data recorded during eruptive activity in June 2021 at Mt. Etna, Italy, to demonstrate its potential for assessment of eruption rates in near-real time. We calculate a time series of flow velocity at the vent using data corrected for topographic scattering, and the effect of vent geometry on the acoustic source radiation. We obtain values of flow velocity of 50-125 m/s during a period of sustained, paroxysmal, activity. We use independent estimates from other ground-based remote sensing data to validate our results. Further, we use the infrasound-derived flow velocities as input into a 1D plume model to estimate the maximum height of the eruption column. Our results suggest that infrasound technology holds promise to assess eruption rates and inform modelling of volcanic plumes. We anticipate that implementation of real-time operational workflows based on infrasound data and plume modelling will impact decision-making and risk mitigation at active volcanoes.

Forecasting volcanic ash atmospheric pathways is of utmost importance for aviation. Volcanic ash can interfere with aircraft navigational instruments and can damage engine parts. Early warning systems, activated after volcanic eruptions can alleviate the impacts on aviation by providing forecasts of the volcanic ash plume dispersion. The quality of these short-term forecasts is subject to the accuracy of the meteorological wind fields used for the initialization of regional models. Here, we use wind profiling data from the first high spectral resolution lidar in space, Aeolus, to examine the impact of measured wind fields on regional NWP and subsequent volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, focusing on the case of Etna's eruption on March 2021. The results from this case study demonstrate a significant improvement of the volcanic ash simulation when using Aeolus-assimilated meteorological fields, with differences in wind speed reaching up to 8 m/s when compared to the control run. When comparing the volcanic ash forecast profiles with downwind surface-based aerosol lidar observations, the modeled field is consistent with the measurements only when Aeolus winds are assimilated. This result clearly demonstrates the potential of Aeolus and highlights the necessity of future wind profiling satellite missions for improving volcanic ash forecasting and hence aviation safety.

The management of multiple hazards simultaneously impacting on a territory is a challenge for effective risk mitigation. This is particularly true on active volcanoes like Mt. Etna, characterized by effusive and explosive eruptions, often coupled with an intense seismic activity. This work aims at presenting the approach of the PANACEA project on the treatment of multi-hazards in terms of risk, which requires a common definition of the exposed elements and their vulnerability. Another aspect emerging from the recent and historical volcanic crises at Etna, is the occurrence of cascading effects and the problem of assessing their short-term interactions. Here we present a risk model taking into account a set of sequences of hazardous events which may result from a volcano unrest to possible impacts to some infrastructural elements. The outcomes of the project are intended to be a significant step towards a more comprehensive resilience to volcanic disasters, leading to a more safe society.

Vortex rings can easily be generated in the laboratory or with homemade devices, but they have also been observed on volcanoes, since the eighteenth century. However, the physical conditions under which volcanic vortex rings form are still unknown. In order to better understand this phenomenon and provide clues on the dynamics of the volcanic vortex rings, we performed a series of finite element simulations to investigate which model configuration leads to the rings formation that best matches the field observations. Results show that the formation of volcanic vortex rings requires a combination of fast gas release from gas bubbles (slugs) at the top of the magma conduit and regularity in the shape of the emitting vent. Our findings offer important insights into the geometry of the uppermost portion of vortex-forming volcanic conduits. Volcanic vortex ring studies may form the basis for a cross-disciplinary assessment of the upper conduit dynamics of volcanic vents.

Video cameras provide vital information on volcanic plumes from explosive eruptions, such as plume height, for monitoring and research. These images must be calibrated to get accurate quantitative data. However, the presence of wind complicates any calibration as the plume may no longer lie in the image plane, i.e. a plane perpendicular to the camera’s line-of-sight. Here, we present a simple new tool to correct for the effect of wind on the position and height of a volcanic plume as determined from imagery by rotating the image plane to be in the direction of the wind. We show the importance of accounting for the effect of wind on the maximum plume height determined from videos for two case-studies; a Vulcanian explosion from Sabancaya volcano, Peru, and a sustained plume from Mount Etna, Italy. This tool can improve the accuracy of quantitative information extracted from images of volcanic plumes, and should prove useful for both research and monitoring purposes.

This work presents the first results of the PANACEA project regarding the assessment of different volcano-related hazards at Mt. Etna (lava and pyroclastic flows, tephra fallout and earthquakes) by exploiting data deriving from the volcano’s history with accurate physical–mathematical models. Volcano-related hazards are distributed differently on Etna—from the deserted summit area down to the densely populated flanks—but must be considered together for long-term territorial planning.

Accurate forecasting of volcanic particle (tephra) dispersal and fallout requires a reliable estimation of key Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) such as the Mass Eruption Rate (Q M). QM is usually estimated from the Top Plume Height (HTP) using empirical and analytical models. For the first time, we combine estimates of HTP and QM derived from the same sensor (radar) with mean wind velocity values (vW) for lava-fountain fed tephra plumes associated with 32 paroxysms of Mt. Etna (Italy) to develop a new statistical model based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for model parameter estimation. This model is especially designed for application to radar data to quickly infer QM from observed HTP and vW, and estimate the associated uncertainty. It can be easily applied and adjusted to data retrieved by radars worldwide, improving our capacity to quickly estimate QM and related uncertainties required for the tephra dispersal hazard.