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  • PublicationOpen Access
    Dalla penna al pennino. I terremoti prima del sismografo
    La distribuzione spaziale e temporale dei terremoti riveste un’importanza cruciale nella valutazione della pericolosità sismica, cioè della stima dello scuotimento sismico su una determinata area. Le faglie, strutture geologiche responsabili dei terremoti, sono spesso situate in profondità nel terreno e in alcuni casi individuate solo a seguito del verificarsi di un evento sismico. Esse possono rimanere inattive per lunghi periodi, talvolta anche secoli. Inoltre, quelle di dimensioni maggiori possono attivarsi solo in alcune parti o lungo tutta la loro lunghezza, provocando una grande varietà di scenari ed eventi di magnitudo anche molto diversa a seconda della porzione di faglia interessata. Un’analisi della sismicità limitata a pochi anni può fornire un quadro della “vita” delle faglie, in termini di intervallo tra gli eventi sismici ed energia rilasciata, incompleto. Estendere quanto più possibile nel tempo l’analisi dei terremoti assicura di definire con maggiore affidabilità e completezza la “pericolosità” sismica di una certa area. Tuttavia, la sismometria moderna inizia solo negli anni Sessanta del secolo scorso. Infatti, nonostante i numerosi tentativi, lungo quasi duemila anni, di costruire strumenti in grado di registrare terremoti e conservare i relativi sismogrammi, molti apparati costruiti prima di quel periodo non hanno ottenuto i risultati prefissati. E comunque nei numerosi casi, soprattutto a partire dalla fine dell’Ottocento, in cui gli strumenti hanno funzionato, solo una piccola parte delle loro registrazioni è stata rintracciata e archiviata. Se basassimo le nostre analisi di sismicità solo sui dati a partire dalla seconda metà del Novecento avremmo un quadro della sismicità della penisola italiana molto diverso da quello reale. Nella figura 1 sono riportati i terremoti di magnitudo superiore a 5 avvenuti a partire dal 1960. In base a quella carta, la Liguria non risulta mai essere stata interessata da terremoti “forti” mentre per altri settori della penisola, come la costa adriatica settentrionale, la Toscana e il Lazio, il quadro della sismicità è profondamente diverso rispetto alle conoscenze attuali. Perfino la Sicilia e la Calabria risultano poco sismiche. Si pone dunque il problema di ricostruire la sismicità per periodi nei quali non esistevano, o comunque non erano sufficientemente affidabili, strumenti sismici o per i quali le registrazioni sono andate perdute. In questo articolo, dopo una veloce ricostruzione della storia degli apparati sismici, vengono descritte le tecniche con le quali è possibile riconoscere e catalogare terremoti anche per periodi nei quali non esisteva strumentazione sismica.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    POPE: a software package for a reliable reconstruction of paleoseismicity
    We present the first version of the software POPE (Probability of Occurrence of Paleoseismic Earthquakes, POPEv1.0), designed to assist seismologists in reconstructing the timing of paleoseismic earthquakes on a fault, based on event ages derived from multiple trenches along that fault. The main feature of POPEv1.0 is that it accounts for uncertainties in the input paleoseismic data (i.e. the paleoearthquake ages from trenches) and generates multiple fault rupture scenarios by applying a probabilistic aggregation method that also considers less likely, but plausible, ways of combining paleoseis- mological data from different trenches. Some of these scenarios may subsequently be excluded through an independent expert selection process, based on their consistency with available stratigraphic, structural and historical constraints. To show the use of POPEv1.0 and discuss the underlying methodology, we apply it to the paleoseismic data from two faults in Central Italy, the Ovindoli-Pezza and Monte Ocre faults, and discuss the implications of results for seismic hazard assessment in the region
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Assessing future coastal hazards due to Mediterranean hurricanes under sea-level rise and storm intensification
    Threats from short-term extreme weather systems such as medicanes ("Mediterranean hurricanes"), combined with long-term sea-level rise, increasingly endanger coastal regions. The intensity of these cyclones is expected to rise due to warming sea surface temperatures and greater atmospheric moisture. In this study, we modeled the compound effects of a medicane under future sea-level rise and increased cyclone intensity. Using medicane Zorbas (September 2018) as a baseline for southeastern Sicily-a historically prone area-we simulated spectral significant wave heights and water levels with a coupled Delft3D-SWAN model for present and future scenarios (2050, 2100, 2150). Cyclone intensities were increased progressively by 8% (2050), 14% (2100), and 25% (2150), derived from high-emission sensitivity studies and applied as scenariobased perturbations, while track and storm size remained constant. Coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion were then modeled using XBeach under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Model results were validated against tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, and morphological changes over the last decade were assessed. Under the worst-case 25% intensity increase by 2150, model simulations indicate a substantial expansion of flooded areas across southeastern Sicily-exceeding 2.8 km 2-with the most vulnerable wetland systems experiencing an increase of nearly two orders of magnitude compared to the present-day scenario, and localized erosion magnitudes potentially exceeding 10 m. These values are higher than any observed during medicane events in recent decades.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Hard-bottom benthic communities in two semi-submerged marine caves (Adriatic Sea): an updated baseline with insights on short-term recreational boating impacts
    (Oxford : Elsevier Science Limited, 2026-04-24)
    Tursi, Andrea
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    Chimienti, Giovanni
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    Bottalico, Antonella
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    Schiavo, Antonella
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    Longo, Caterina
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    Mastrototaro, Francesco
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    We investigated two semi-submerged marine caves within the Tremiti Islands Marine Protected Area (South Italy, Adriatic Sea), integrating geomorphological mapping, video-transects, qualitative sampling, and an assessment of recreational boating. High-resolution 3D surveys were used to characterize cave morphology. Benthic assemblages were analysed from SCUBA video-transects performed at two depths (3 and 7 m) in May and November 2021 (before and after the tourist season, respectively), and species inventories were refined through qualitative sampling. A total of 118 taxa were recorded. Benthic cover was consistently high (98-99%) across caves, depths, sectors, and periods. Assemblages were dominated by encrusting sciaphilic Rhodophyta and Porifera, and showed clear spatial gradients both horizontally and vertically. Recreational boating pressure was high, with >5000 boat transits and approximately 77,000 passengers recorded in summer 2021. Despite this intensity, no detectable short-term changes in benthic composition were detected at the community level. Large excursion boatsquick visits, regulated, and professionally operatedhad minimal impact, whereas small, rented motorboats, with longer and less controlled visits, represent a potential risk. These findings provide the first integrated ecological and geomorphological baseline for Tremiti semi-submerged caves and support targeted management of recreational boating within MPAs.