A Statistical Approach to Satellite Time Series Analysis to Detect Changes in Thermal Activities: The Vulcano Island 2021 Crisis

Abstract

Abstract Vulcano belongs to the seven volcanic islands forming the Aeolian archipelago (Italy) and has the privilege to define an eruptive style as “Vulcanian”. It has to be considered as an active volcano as its most recent activity demonstrated. Starting by late spring 2021, the thermal state of the Vulcano summit area changed and the gas emission increased. During the summer and, in particular, starting from September, geophysical and geochemical signals, precisely those linked to the activity of the hydrothermal system that feeds the fumaroles of the Fossa crater, varied. The temperature of the gases emitted by the fumaroles on the crater rim has increased and the composition of the gases has showed an increase in CO2 and SO2 (carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide) concentration. For such reasons, the authors decided to follow this event by analyzing the remotely sensed available data suitable for detecting changes in thermal state. By processing the TIRS (Landsat 8) and ASTER time series, two long-term surface temperature logs were obtained and, therefore, by adopting a statistical approach, an analysis in both space and time domains has emphasized a thermal signature since mid-September 2021.