Chevrel, Magdalena Oryaëlle

Classical mechanisms of volcanic eruptions mostly involve pressure buildup and magma ascent towards the surface1. Such processes produce geophysical and geochemical signals that may be detected and interpreted as eruption precursors1-3. On 22 May 2021, Mount Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of the Congo), an open-vent volcano with a persistent lava lake perched within its summit crater, shook up this interpretation by producing an approximately six-hour-long flank eruption without apparent precursors, followed-rather than preceded-by lateral magma motion into the crust. Here we show that this reversed sequence was most likely initiated by a rupture of the edifice, producing deadly lava flows and triggering a voluminous 25-km-long dyke intrusion. The dyke propagated southwards at very shallow depth (less than 500 m) underneath the cities of Goma (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and Gisenyi (Rwanda), as well as Lake Kivu. This volcanic crisis raises new questions about the mechanisms controlling such eruptions and the possibility of facing substantially more hazardous events, such as effusions within densely urbanized areas, phreato-magmatism or a limnic eruption from the gas-rich Lake Kivu. It also more generally highlights the challenges faced with open-vent volcanoes for monitoring, early detection and risk management when a significant volume of magma is stored close to the surface.

Forest destruction by ‘a‘ ̄a lava flow is common. However, mechanical and thermal interactions between the invading lava and the invaded forest are poorly constrained. We complete mapping, thermal image and sample analyses of a channel-fed ‘a‘a ̄ lava flow system that invaded forest on the NE flank of Mt. Etna (Italy) in 2002. These lava flows destroyed 231,000 trees, only 2% of which are still visible as felled trunks on the levees or at the channel-levee contact. The remaining 98% were first felled by the flow front, with the trunks then buried by the flow. Rare tree molds can be found at the rubble levee base where trees were buried by avalanching hot breccia and then burnt through, with a time scale for total combustion being a few days. Protruding trunks fell away from the flow, if felled by blocks avalanching down the levee flank, or became aligned with the flow if falling onto the moving stream. Estimated cooling rates (0.1–5.5 ◦C km− 1) are normal for well-insulated ‘a‘a ̄ flow, suggesting no thermal interaction. We find the highest phenocryst concentrations (of 50–60%, above an expected value of 30–40%) in low velocity (<0.5 m s− 1) locations. These low velocity zones are also characterized by high trunk concentrations. Thus, the common factor behind crystal and trunk deposition is velocity. That is, when the lava slows down, crystal settling occurs and trunks are preferentially deposited. Thus, although we find no thermal or textural effects due to the presence of the forest, we do find mechanical and environmental in- teractions where the trees are consumed to become part of the flow.

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used in recent years to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved twenty-eight experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics than the eruptions observed in recent decades, and that it is fundamental to include well prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

In March 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization and became a global health crisis. Authorities worldwide implemented lockdowns to restrict travel and social exchanges in a global effort to counter the pandemic. In France, and in French overseas departments, the lockdown was effective from 17 March to 11 May 2020. It was in this context that the 2–6 April 2020 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) took place. Upon the announcement of the lockdown in France, a reduced activity plan was set up by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, which manages the Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise (OVPF). The aim was to (1) maintain remote mon- itoring operations by teleworking and (2) authorize fieldwork only for critical reasons, such as serious breakdowns of stations or transmission relays. This eruption provided an opportunity for the observatory to validate its capacity to manage a volcanic crisis with 100% remotely operated monitoring networks. We thus present the long- and short-term precursors to the eruption, and the evolution of the eruption recorded using the real-time monitoring data as communicated to the stakeholders. The data were from both continuously recording and transmitting field instruments as well as satellites. The volcano observatory staff remotely managed the volcano crisis with the various stake- holders based only on these remotely functioning networks. Monitoring duties were also assured in the absence of ad hoc field investigation of the eruption by observatory staff or face-to-face communications. The density and reliability of the OVPF networks, com- bined with satellite observations, allowed for trustworthy instrument-based monitoring of the eruption and continuity of the OVPF duties in issuing regular updates of volcanic activity in the context of a double crisis: volcanic and health.

Piton de la Fournaise, situated on La Réunion island (France), is one of the most active hot spot basaltic shield volcanoes worldwide, experiencing at least two eruptions per year since the establishment of the volcanological observatory in 1979. Eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. About 95¯% of some g1/4¯250 historical events (since the first confidently dated eruption in 1708) have occurred inside an uninhabited horseshoe-shaped caldera (hereafter referred to as the Enclos), which is open to the ocean on its eastern side. Rarely (12 times since the 18th century), fissures have opened outside of the Enclos, where housing units, population centers, and infrastructure are at risk. In such a situation, lava flow hazard maps are a useful way of visualizing lava flow inundation probabilities over large areas. Here, we present the up-to-date lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise based on (i) vent distribution, (ii) lava flow recurrence times, (iii) statistics of lava flow lengths, and (iv) simulations of lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW stochastic numerical model. The map of the entire volcano highlights the spatial distribution probability of future lava flow invasion for the medium to long term (years to decades). It shows that the most probable location for future lava flow is within the Enclos (where there are areas with up to 12¯% probability), a location visited by more than 100¯000 visitors every year. Outside of the Enclos, probabilities reach 0.5¯% along the active rift zones. Although lava flow hazard occurrence in inhabited areas is deemed to be very low (<¯0.1¯%), it may be underestimated as our study is only based on post-18th century records and neglects older events. We also provide a series of lava flow hazard maps inside the Enclos, computed on a multi-temporal (i.e., regularly updated) topography. Although hazard distribution remains broadly the same over time, some changes are noticed throughout the analyzed periods due to improved digital elevation model (DEM) resolution, the high frequency of eruptions that constantly modifies the topography, and the lava flow dimensional characteristics and paths. The lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise presented here is reliable and trustworthy for long-term hazard assessment and land use planning and management. Specific hazard maps for short-term hazard assessment (e.g., for responding to volcanic crises) or considering the cycles of activity at the volcano and different event scenarios (i.e., events fed by different combinations of temporally evolving superficial and deep sources) are required for further assessment of affected areas in the future - especially by atypical but potentially extremely hazardous large-volume eruptions. At such an active site, our method supports the need for regular updates of DEMs and associated lava flow hazard maps if we are to be effective in keeping up to date with mitigation of the associated risks.

Low elevation flank eruptions represent highly hazardous events due to their location near, or in, communities. Their potentially high effusion rates can feed fast moving lava flows that enter populated areas with little time for warning or evacuation, as was the case at Nyiragongo in 1977. The January–March 1974 eruption on the western flank of Mount Etna, Italy, was a low elevation effusive event, but with low effusion rates. It consisted of two eruptive phases, separated by 23 days of quiescence, and produced two lava flow fields. We describe the different properties of the two lava flow fields through structural and morphological analyses using UAV-based photogrammetry, plus textural and rheological analyses of samples. Phase I produced lower density (∼2,210 kg m−3) and crystallinity (∼37%) lavas at higher eruption temperatures (∼1,080°C), forming thinner (2–3 m) flow units with less-well-developed channels than Phase II. Although Phase II involved an identical source magma, it had higher densities (∼2,425 kg m−3) and crystallinities (∼40%), and lower eruption temperatures (∼1,030°C), forming thicker (5 m) flow units with well-formed channels. These contrasting properties were associated with distinct rheologies, Phase I lavas having lower viscosities (∼103 Pa s) than Phase II (∼105 Pa s). Effusion rates were higher during Phase I (≥5 m3/s), but the episodic, short-lived nature of each lava flow emplacement event meant that flows were volume-limited and short (≤1.5 km). Phase II effusion rates were lower (≤4 m3/s), but sustained effusion led to flow units that could still extend 1.3 km, although volume limits resulted from levee failure and flow avulsion to form new channels high in the lava flow system. We present a petrologically-based model whereby a similar magma fed both phases, but slower ascent during Phase II may have led to greater degrees of degassing resulting in higher cooling-induced densities and crystallinities, as well as lower temperatures. We thus define a low effusion rate end- member scenario for low elevation effusive events, revealing that such events are not necessarily of high effusion rate and velocity, as in the catastrophic event scenarios of Etna 1669 or Kilauea 2018.

Satellite‐based surveillance of volcanic hot spots and plumes can be coupled with modeling to allow ensemble‐based approaches to crisis response. We complete benchmark tests on an effusive crisis response protocol aimed at delivering product for use in tracking lava flows. The response involves integration of four models: MIROVA for discharge rate (TADR), the ASTER urgent response protocol for delivery of high‐spatial resolution satellite data, DOWNFLOW for flow path projections, and PyFLOWGO for flow run‐out. We test the protocol using the data feed available during Piton de la Fournaise’s April–May 2018 eruption, with product being delivered to the Observatoire du Piton de la Fournaise via Google Drive. The response was initialized by an alert at 19:50Z on 27 April 2018. Initially DOWNFLOW‐FLOWGO were run using TADRs typical of Piton de la Fournaise, and revealed that flow at >120 m 3 /s could reach the island belt road. The first TADR (10– 20 m 3 /s) was available at 09:55Z on 28 April, and gave flow run‐outs of 1180–2510 m. The latency between satellite overpass and TADR provision was 105 minutes, with the model result being posted 15 minutes later. An InSAR image pair was completed six hours after the eruption began, and gave a flow length of 1.8 km; validating the run‐out projection. Thereafter, run‐outs were updated with each new TADR, and checked against flow lengths reported from InSAR and ASTER mapping. In all, 35 TADRs and 15 InSAR image pairs were processed during the 35‐day‐long eruption, and 11 ASTER images were delivered.