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Komorowski, Jean-Christophe
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Komorowski, Jean-Christophe
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Komorowski, Jean Christophe
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe European Volcano Observatories and their use of the aviation colour code system(2024)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code278 17 - PublicationOpen AccessGas Monitoring of Volcanic-Hydrothermal Plumes in a Tropical Environment: The Case of La Soufrière de Guadeloupe Unrest Volcano (Lesser Antilles)(2022-03-14)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;Fumarolic gas survey of dormant volcanoes in hydrothermal activity is crucial to detect compositional and mass flux changes in gas emissions that are potential precursors of violent phreatic or even magmatic eruptions. Here we report on new data for the chemical compositions (CO2, H2S, SO2) and fluxes of fumarolic gas emissions (97–104°C) from La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles) obtained from both mobile MultiGas measurements and permanent MultiGas survey. This paper covers the period 2016–2020, encompassing a period of enhanced hydrothermal unrest including an abrupt seismic energy release (M 4.1) on April 27, 2018. Our dataset reveals fumarolic CO2/H2S and SO2/H2S gas trends correlated to the evolution of surface activity and to other geochemical and geophysical parameters. We demonstrate that, even under tropical conditions (high humidity and rainfall), MultiGas surveys of low-T fumarolic emissions permit to distinguish deeply sourced signals of volcanic unrest from secondary changes in degassing due to shallow forcing processes such as water-gas-rock interactions in the hydrothermal system and meteorological effects.78 18 - PublicationOpen AccessAssessing hazard and potential impact associated with volcanic ballistic projectiles: The example of La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano (Lesser Antilles)(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;; ;The fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents has the potential to produce severe injuries to people and damage to infrastructure in areas proximal to volcanoes. The dimensions and dispersions of ballistic ejecta from explosive eruptions are pivotal parameters to forecast the potential impact associated with future eruptions based on the compilation of probabilistic hazard maps. In this study, we propose a new probabilistic hazard quantification strategy to provide the probability of Volcanic Ballistic Projectiles (VBPs) to exceed some critical kinetic energy thresholds, considering a variability on the site of the eruptive vents and the effect of wind. La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles) is chosen as a test case, focussing on the most likely style explosive scenario associated with the eruption of an active lava dome (including phreatic, Vulcanian and Strombolian eruptions). Sensitivity analyses have guided the optimization of input parameters to balance the results stability and computational costs, showing that the topography is a pivotal factor when accounting for the spatial uncertainty on vent locations in the proximity of the dome area. Given an eruption within the adopted scenario, we provide maps showing the probability to exceed different energy reference thresholds for roof's perforation if at least one VBP falls in a target area. These maps are then combined with exposed elements to produce a qualitative exposure-based risk map. We compute the overall probability, conditional on the selected scenario, for roof perforation in a given area when a VBP is ejected. Results show probabilities varying from ca. 2% up to 40% within a few km from the volcano, quickly dropping away from the dome. However, when the probability to exceed the energy reference threshold is only conditional on falling of VBPs in a target area, most of Basse-Terre island would be affected by the 20–60% probability of roof perforation. This work confirms how the choice of a probabilistic approach is key to estimate the likelihood of occurrence of VBPs impacts as a first step towards the development and implementation of pro–active risk reduction strategies in volcanic areas.130 43 - PublicationOpen AccessStructured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used in recent years to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved twenty-eight experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics than the eruptions observed in recent decades, and that it is fundamental to include well prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.241 69 - PublicationOpen AccessGuidelines for volcano-observatory operations during crises: recommendations from the 2019 volcano observatory best practices meeting(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;; ; ; ;In November 2019, the fourth meeting on Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop was held in Mexico City as a series of talks, discussions, and panels. Volcanologists from around the world offered suggestions for ways to optimize volcano-observatory crisis operations. By crisis, we mean unrest that may or may not lead to eruption, the eruption itself, or its aftermath, all of which require analysis and communications by the observatory. During a crisis, the priority of the observatory should be to acquire, process, analyze, and interpret data in a timely manner. A primary goal is to communicate effectively with the authorities in charge of civil protection. Crisis operations should rely upon exhaustive planning in the years prior to any actual unrest or eruptions. Ideally, nearly everything that observatories do during a crisis should be envisioned, prepared, and practiced prior to the actual event. Pre-existing agreements and exercises with academic and government collaborators will minimize confusion about roles and responsibilities. In the situation where planning is unfinished, observatories should prioritize close ties and communications with the land and civil-defense authorities near the most threatening volcanoes.312 136 - PublicationOpen AccessThe integrated multidisciplinary European volcano infrastructure: from the conception to the implementation(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;Recent decades have highlighted the increasing need to connect and strengthen the volcanology community at European level. Indeed, research in the volcanology field is highly qualified in Europe and the volcano monitoring infrastructures have achieved valuable know-how, becoming the state-of-the-art in the world. However, the lack of common good practices in sciences and technologies, missing standards, as well as a significant fragmentation of the community requires coordination to move forward and guarantee a trans-national harmonisation. The European Plate Observing System (EPOS) represented the first opportunity to initiate this process of coordination by encouraging the creation of a European volcanological scientific infrastructure for data and service sharing. During the preparation and the design of EPOS, the volcanology community identified the objectives and the needs of the community building, the services to be provided and the work plan to implement the infrastructure. To achieve this aim, the contribution from three European projects FUTUREVOLC, MED-SUV and EUROVOLC was essential. This paper presents the main steps performed during the last years for building the community and implementing the infrastructure. This paper also describes the strategic choices and actions taken to realise the infrastructure such as the establishment of the Volcano Observation Thematic Core Service (TCS), whose structure and activity are described.145 69 - PublicationOpen AccessTesting gas dispersion modelling: A case study at La Soufrière volcano (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles)(2021)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Volcanic gas dispersal can be a serious threat to people living near active volcanoes since it can have short- and long-term effects on human health, and severely damage crops and agricultural land. In recent decades, reliable computational models have significantly advanced, and now they may represent a valuable tool to make quan- titative and testable predictions, supporting gas dispersal forecasting and hazard assessments for public safety. Before applying a specific modelling tool into hazard quantification, its calibration and its sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions should be carefully tested against available data, in order to produce unbiased hazard quantifications. In this study, we provided a number of prototypical tests aimed to validate the modelling of gas dispersal from a hazard perspective. The tests were carried out at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano, one of the most active gas emitters in the Lesser Antilles. La Soufrière de Guadeloupe has shown quasi-permanent degassing of a low-temperature hydrothermal nature since its last magmatic eruption in 1530 CE, when the current dome was emplaced. We focused on the distribu- tion of CO2 and H2S discharged from the three main present-day fumarolic sources at the summit, using the mea- surements of continuous gas concentrations collected in the period March–April 2017. We developed a new probabilistic implementation of the Eulerian code DISGAS-2.0 for passive gas dispersion coupled with the mass-consistent Diagnostic Wind Model, using local wind measurements and atmospheric stability information from a local meteorological station and ERA5 reanalysis data. We found that model outputs were not significantly affected by the type of wind data but rather upon the relative positions of fumaroles and measurement stations. Our results reproduced the statistical variability in daily averages of observed data over the investigated period within acceptable ranges, indicating the potential usefulness of DISGAS-2.0 as a tool for reproducing the observed fumarolic degassing and for quantifying gas hazard at La Soufrière. The adopted testing procedure allows for an aware application of simulation tools for quantifying the hazard, and thus we think that this kind of testing should actually be the first logical step to be taken when applying a simulator to assess (gas) hazard in any other volcanic contexts.269 32 - PublicationOpen AccessThe 2018 unrest phase at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (French West Indies) andesitic volcano: Scrutiny of a failed but prodromal phreatic eruption(2020-01-11)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; After 25 years of gradual increase, volcanic unrest at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe reached its highest seismic en- ergy level on 27 April 2018, with the largest felt volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake (ML 4.1 or MW 3.7) recorded since the 1976–1977 phreatic eruptive crisis. This event marked the onset ofa seismic swarm(180 events, 2 felt) occurring after three previous swarms on 3–6 January (70 events), 1 st February (30 events, 1 felt) and 16–17 April (140 events, 1 felt). Many events were hybrid VTs with long-period codas, located 2–4 km below the vol- cano summit and clustered within 2 km along a regional NW-SE fault cross-cutting La Soufrière. Elastic energy release increased with eachswarmwhereas inter-event time shortened. At the same time, summit fractures con- tinued to open and thermal anomalies to extend. Summit fumarolic activity increased significantly until 20 April, with a maximum temperature of111.4 °C and gas exit velocity of80 m/s, before declining to ~95 °C and ~33 m/s on 25 April. Gas compositions revealed increasing C/S and CO2/CH4 ratios and indicate hydrothermal P-T condi- tions that reached the critical point ofpure water. Repeated MultiGAS analysis of fumarolic plumes showed in- creased CO2/H2S ratios and SO2 contents associated with the reactivation of degassing fractures (T = 93 °C, H2S/SO2 ≈ 1). While no direct evidence ofupward magma migration was detected, we attribute the above phe- nomena to an increased supply ofdeepmagmatic fluids that heated and pressurized the La Soufrière hydrother- mal system, triggering seismogenic hydro-fracturing, and probable changes in deep hydraulic properties (permeability) and drainage pathways, which ultimately allowed the fumarolic fluxes to lower. Although this magmatic fluid injectionwasmodulated by the hydrothermal system, the unprecedented seismic energy release and the critical point conditions ofhydrothermal fluids suggest that the 2018 sequence ofevents can be regarded as a failed phreatic eruption. Should a similar sequence repeat, we warn that phreatic explosive activity could re- sult fromdisruption ofthe shallowhydrothermal system that is currently responsible for 3–9mm/y ofnearly ra- dial horizontal displacements within 1 km from the dome. Another potential hazard is partial collapse of the dome's SW flank, already affected by basal spreading above a detachment surface inherited from past collapses. Finally, the increased magmatic fluid supply evidenced by geochemical indicators in 2018 is compatible with magma replenishment of the 6–7 kmdeep crustal reservoir feeding La Soufrière and, therefore, with a potential evolution of the volcano's activity towards magmatic conditions.163 61 - PublicationOpen AccessModelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)(2020)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 107 kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs-very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.394 46 - PublicationOpen AccessSpatio-Temporal Relationships between Fumarolic Activity, Hydrothermal Fluid Circulation and Geophysical Signals at an Arc Volcano in Degassing Unrest: La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (French West Indies)(2019-11-15)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Over the past two decades, La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe has displayed a growing degassing unrest whose actual source mechanism still remains unclear. Based on new measurements of the chemistry and mass flux of fumarolic gas emissions from the volcano, here we reveal spatio-temporal variations in the degassing features that closely relate to the 3D underground circulation of fumarolic fluids, as imaged by electrical resistivity tomography, and to geodetic-seismic signals recorded over the past two decades. Discrete monthly surveys of gas plumes from the various vents on La Soufrière lava dome, performed with portable MultiGAS analyzers, reveal important differences in the chemical proportions and fluxes of H2O, CO2, H2S, SO2 and H2, which depend on the vent location with respect to the underground circulation of fluids. In particular, the main central vents, though directly connected to the volcano conduit and preferentially surveyed in past decades, display much higher CO2/SO2 and H2S/SO2 ratios than peripheral gas emissions, reflecting greater SO2 scrubbing in the boiling hydrothermal water at 80–100 m depth. Gas fluxes demonstrate an increased bulk degassing of the volcano over the past 10 years, but also a recent spatial shift in fumarolic degassing intensity from the center of the lava dome towards its SE–NE sector and the Breislack fracture. Such a spatial shift is in agreement with both extensometric and seismic evidence of fault widening in this sector due to slow gravitational sliding of the southern dome sector. Our study thus provides an improved framework to monitor and interpret the evolution of gas emissions from La Soufrière in the future and to better forecast hazards from this dangerous andesitic volcano.174 26