Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/14922
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.date.accessioned | 2021-11-26T06:58:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-11-26T06:58:04Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021-11-18 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/14922 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting models have been primarily studied and developed over the past twenty years. These models mainly rely on seismicity catalogs as their data source and provide forecasts in time, space, and magnitude in a quantifiable manner. In this study, we presented a technique to better determine future earthquakes in space based on spatially smoothed seismicity. The improvement’s main objective is to use foreshock and aftershock events together with their mainshocks. Time-independent earthquake forecast models are often developed using declustered catalogs, where smaller-magnitude events regarding their mainshocks are removed from the catalog. Declustered catalogs are required in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to hold the Poisson assumption that the events are independent in time and space. However, as highlighted and presented by many recent studies, removing such events from seismic catalogs may lead to underestimating seismicity rates and, consequently, the final seismic hazard in terms of ground shaking. Our study also demonstrated that considering the complete catalog may improve future earthquakes’ spatial forecast. To do so, we adopted two different smoothed seismicity methods: (1) the fixed smoothing method, which uses spatially uniform smoothing parameters, and (2) the adaptive smoothing method, which relates an individual smoothing distance for each earthquake. The smoothed seismicity models are constructed by using the global earthquake catalog with Mw ≥ 5.5 events. We reported progress on comparing smoothed seismicity models developed by calculating and evaluating the joint log-likelihoods. Our resulting forecast shows a significant information gain concerning both fixed and adaptive smoothing model forecasts. Our findings indicate that complete catalogs are a notable feature for increasing the spatial variation skill of seismicity forecasts. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | English | en_US |
dc.publisher.name | MDPI | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Applied Sciences | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /11 (2021) | en_US |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/ | * |
dc.subject | seismic hazard | en_US |
dc.subject | Smoothed Seismicity Approach | en_US |
dc.subject | global seismic catalog | en_US |
dc.subject | aftershocks | en_US |
dc.title | A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global Mw ≥ 5.5 Seismicity | en_US |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en_US |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en_US |
dc.description.pagenumber | 10899 | en_US |
dc.identifier.URL | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356372322_A_New_Smoothed_Seismicity_Approach_to_Include_Aftershocks_and_Foreshocks_in_Spatial_Earthquake_Forecasting_Application_to_the_Global_Mw_55_Seismicity | en_US |
dc.subject.INGV | 04.06. Seismology | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3390/app112210899 | en_US |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto | en_US |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Taroni, Matteo | - |
dc.contributor.author | Akinci, Aybige | - |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en_US |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6999-4590 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-8073-3420 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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applsci-11-10899.pdf | Open Access published article | 2.43 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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