Robertson, Jennifer

Uncertainty concerning the processes responsible for slip-rate fluctuations associated with temporal clustering of surface faulting earthquakes is a fundamental, unresolved issue in tectonics, because strain-rates accommodated by fault/shear-zone structures are the key to understanding the viscosity structure of the crust and seismic hazard. We constrain the timing and amplitude of slip-rate fluctuations that occurred on three active normal faults in central Italy over a time period of 20–30 kyrs, using in situ 36Cl cosmogenic dating of fault planes. We identify five periods of rapid slip on individual faults lasting a few millennia, separated time periods of up to 10 millennia with low or zero slip-rate. The rapid slip pulses migrated across the strike between the faults in two waves from SW to NE. We replicate this migration with a model where rapid slip induces changes in differential stress that drive changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that drive slip-rate variability on overlying brittle faults. Earthquakes increase the differential stress and strain-rate on underlying shear zones, which in turn accumulate strain, re-loading stress onto the overlying brittle fault. This positive feedback produces high strain-rate episodes containing several large magnitude surface faulting earthquakes (earthquake clusters), but also reduce the differential stress on the viscous portions of neighbouring fault/shear-zones slowing the occurrence of large-magnitude surface faulting earthquakes (earthquake anticlusters). Shear-zones on faults experiencing anticlusters continue to accumulate viscous strain at a lowered rate, and eventually this loads the overlying brittle fault to failure, initiating a period of rapid slip through the positive feedback process described above, and inducing lowered strain-rates onto neighbouring fault/shear-zones. We show that these patterns of differential stress change can replicate the measured earthquake clustering implied by the 36Cl data. The stress changes are related to the fault geometry in terms of distance and azimuth from the slipping structure, implying that (a) strain-rate and viscosity fluctuations for studies of continental rheology, and (b) slip-rates for seismic hazard purposes are to an extent predictable given knowledge of the fault system geometry.

In this study, we present scaling relationships between fault lengths, fault slip-rates and historical seismicity for an active normal fault system, seismically accommodating crustal extension within the upper plate of the Ionian subduction zone (southern Italy). This crustal extension is confirmed by historical seismicity and instrumental geodesy, with GNSS-derived values of horizonal deformation within a range of 2-3 mm/yr throughout Calabria and the Messina Strait region. We collated data for fault slip-rates, fault lengths and historical earthquakes for a given fault to explore whether fault slip-rates are correlated with fault size and their geometric moment.We present new results showing a robust correlation between fault lengths and fault slip-rates, which supports the idea of a relationship for a given fault between fault slip-rates and the geometric moment.We discuss our results in terms of how these correlations should be used if regional deformation is accommodated by localised strain on faults mostly arranged along strike rather than distributed strain on multiple faults across-strike. For instance, we compare our empirical correlation between fault lengths and fault throw-rates over the Middle-Late Pleistocene in Calabria and the Messina Strait with those from Central and Southern Apennines over the Holocene, characterized by strain distributed on multiple faults across-strike and strain localised on faults mostly arranged along-strike, respectively.Tectonic and seismic hazard implications are discussed for future investigations based on fault slip-rates, fault size and historical seismicity.

We undertake spatio-temporal analysis on sequences of Pleistocene palaeoshorelines in southwestern Crete where deformed Holocene marine notches have predominantly been suggested to be linked to coseismic uplift from the 365 CE Mw > 8 earthquake. Previous investigations into the Holocene notches have been used to infer that the dominant mechanism of uplift may be slip either on a reverse crustal fault or on the subduction interface. However, seismic reflection studies attest to the presence of numerous active offshore extensional faults whose role in the long-term deformation is unclear. The relative contributions of upper-plate extensional and compressional faults to the overall deformation can be assessed through the study of uplifted and deformed Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines. New 36Cl exposure dating on wave-cut platforms and palaeoshoreline mapping are combined with existing age controls to facilitate investigation into the deformed Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines. We observe that the Late Quaternary uplift rates increase from west (0.61 mm/yr) to east (0.83 mm/yr) over ∼20 km, a spatial uplift pattern that is inconsistent with published vertical deformation models of slip solely on the subduction interface or on a reverse crustal fault. Elastic half-space modelling suggests that an offshore extensional fault may also contribute to the uplift. We conclude that a combination of active extensional and compressional faults may be responsible for Late Quaternary uplift across southwestern Crete.

We have mapped and constrained the timing of tectonically deformed uplifted Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines in the Messina Strait, southern Italy, an area above a subduction zone containing active normal faults. The palaeoshorelines are preserved from up to thirteen Late Quaternary sea-level highstands, providing a record of the deformation over this timescale (~500 ka) for the Messina-Taormina Fault, the Reggio Calabria Fault and the Armo Fault. The palaeoshorelines reveal spatial patterns of uplift through time along the strike of these normal faults, and, given the across strike arrangement of the faults, also reveal how the contribution of each fault to the regional strain-rate progressed through time. The results reveal that the uplift rates mapped within the fault hangingwalls and footwalls were not constant through time, with a marked change in the location of strain accumulation at ~50 ka. The uplift rates, once converted into throw-rates, imply that the three faults comprised similar throw-rates prior to ~50 ka (in the range 0.77–0.96 mm/yr), with the Armo and Reggio Calabria faults then switching to lower rates (0.32 mm/yr and 0.33 mm/yr respectively), whilst the Messina-Taormina Fault accelerated to 2.34 mm/yr. The regional extension rate, gained by summing the implied heave rates across the three faults, was maintained through time despite this re-organisation of local strain accumulation at ~50 ka. We explain these out-of-phase fault throw-rate changes during the constant-rate regional extension conditions as due to interactions between these upper plate normal faults. We finally discuss how fault throw-rates changing through time may affect a long-term seismic hazard assessment within active normal fault systems.

Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments.

The geometry, rates and kinematics of active faulting in the region close to the tip of a major crustal-scale normal fault in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece, are investigated using detailed fault mapping and new absolute dating. Fault offsets have been dated using a combination of 234U/230Th coral dates and in situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure ages for sediments and wave-cut platforms deformed by the faults. Our results show that deformation in the tip zone is distributed across as many as eight faults arranged within ~700 m across strike, each of which deforms deposits and landforms associated with the 125 ka marine terrace of Marine Isotope Stage 5e. Summed throw-rates across strike achieve values as high as 0.3–1.6 mm/yr, values that are comparable to those at the centre of the crustal-scale fault (2–3 mm/yr from Holocene palaeoseismology and 3–4 mm/yr from GPS geodesy). The relatively high deformation rate and distributed deformation in the tip zone are discussed in terms of stress enhancement from rupture of neighbouring crustal-scale faults and in terms of how this should be considered during fault-based seismic hazard assessment.

Quaternary uplift is well documented in SE Sicily, a region prone to damaging seismic events, such as the 1693 “Val di Noto” earthquake (Mw 7.4), the largest seismic event reported within the Italian Earthquake Catalogue, whose seismogenic source is still debated and, consequently, the long‐term seismic hazard is poorly understood. However, the spatial variation in the timing and rates of uplift are still debated, so it is difficult to link the dominant tectonic process(es) responsible for the uplift and the location of seismogenic sources. To better constrain the uplift rate, we have refined the dating of Late Quaternary marine terraces, using a synchronous correlation approach, driven by both published and newly obtained numerical age controls (234U/230Th dating on corals). This has allowed recalculation of uplift rates along a N‐S oriented transect within the Hyblean Plateau (HP) foreland region. Consequently, we …

The 28th December 1908 Messina earthquake (Mw 7.1), Italy, caused >80,000 deaths and transformed earthquake science by triggering the study of earthquake environmental effects worldwide, yet its source is still a matter of debate. To constrain the geometry and kinematics of the earthquake we use elastic half-space modelling on non-planar faults, constrained by the geology and geomorphology of the Messina Strait, to replicate levelling data from 1907-1909. The novelty of our approach is that we (a) recognise the similarity between the pattern of vertical motions and that of other normal faulting earthquakes, and (b) for the first time model the levelling data using the location and geometry of a well-known offshore capable fault. Our results indicate slip on the capable fault with a dip to the east of 70° and 5 m dip-slip at depth, with slip propagating to the surface on the sea bed. Our work emphasises that geological and geomorphological observations supporting maps of capable non-planar faults should not be ignored when attempting to identify the sources of major earthquakes.

Preserved sets of marine terraces and palaeoshorelines above subduction zones provide an opportunity to explore the long‐term deformation that occurs as a result of upper‐plate extension. We investigate uplifted palaeoshorelines along the South Central Crete Fault and over its western tip, located above the Hellenic Subduction Zone, in order to derive uplift rates and examine the role that known extensional faults contribute to observed coastal uplift. We have mapped palaeoshorelines and successfully dated four Late‐Quaternary wave‐cut platforms using in situ 36Cl exposure dating. These absolute ages are used to guide a correlation of palaeoshorelines with Quaternary sea level highstands from 76.5 to ~900 ka; the results of which suggest that uplift rates vary along fault strikes but have been constant for up to 600 ka in places. Correlation of palaeoshorelines across the South Central Crete Fault results in a throw‐rate of 0.41 mm/year and, assuming repetition of 1.1‐m slip events, a fault‐specific earthquake recurrence interval of approximately 2,700 years. Elastic‐half‐space modeling implies that coastal uplift is related to offshore upper‐plate extensional faults. These faults may be responsible for perturbing the uplift rate signals in the south central Crete area. Our findings suggest that where uplifted marine terraces are used to make inferences about the mechanisms responsible for uplift throughout the Hellenic Subduction Zone, and other subduction zones worldwide, the impact of upper‐plate extensional faults over multiple seismic cycles should also be considered.

In order to investigate the deformation within the upper plate of the Calabrian subduction zone, we have mapped and modeled a sequence of Late Quaternary paleoshorelines tectonically deformed by the Capo D'Orlando normal fault, NE Sicily, which forms part of the actively deforming Calabrian Arc. In addition to the 1908 Messina Strait earthquake (Mw 7.1), this region has experienced damaging earthquakes, possibly on the Capo D'Orlando Fault; however, it is not considered by some to be a potential seismogenic source. Uplifted Quaternary paleoshorelines are preserved on the hangingwall of the Capo D'Orlando Fault, indicating that hangingwall subsidence is counteracted by regional uplift, likely because of deformation associated with subduction/collision. We attempt to constrain the relationship between regional uplift, crustal extensional processes, and historical seismicity, and we quantify both the normal and regional deformation signals. We report uplift variations along the strike of the fault and use a synchronous correlation technique to assign ages to paleoshorelines, facilitating calculation of uplift rates and the fault throw rate. Uplift rates in the hangingwall increase from 0.4 mm/year in the center of the fault to 0.89 mm/year beyond its SW fault tip, suggesting 0.5 mm/year of fault-related subsidence, which implies a throw rate of 0.63 ± 0.02 mm/year, and significant seismic hazard. Overall, we emphasize that upper plate extension and related vertical motions complicate the process of deriving information on the subduction/collision process, such as coupling and slip distribution on the subduction interface, parameters that are commonly inferred for other subduction zones without considering upper plate deformation.