Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9920
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Peruzza, L.; OGS, trieste | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Pace, B.; U n i v e r s i t à “ G . d ’ A n n u n z i o ” d i C h i e t i - P e s c a r a | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Visini, F.; U n i v e r s i t à “ G . d ’ A n n u n z i o ” d i C h i e t i - P e s c a r a | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-06-12T09:40:10Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2015-06-12T09:40:10Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9920 | en |
dc.description.abstract | In 2006 we published an earthquake hazard model called LASSCI (LAyered Seismogenic Source model in central Italy). In October 2008 we began to update the model for use in 5- and 10-year forecasts. The LASSCI–2006 model is supported by good fault-based definitions of seismogenic sources and simple phys- ically motivated models of earthquake occurrence; the LASSCI–2009 model has been improved by revision of the error propagation assumptions and increased accuracy of the earthquake probabilities. The 6 April 2009 earthquake that struck L’Aquila occurred on the model fault having the highest probability of occurrence in the 2009 revised LASSCI forecast: it is therefore consistent with our model assumptions. Furthermore, peak ground accelerations were in reasonable agreement with the values having 90% probability of not being exceeded in 50 yr. In the revised 2009 model, the aggregate probability of having a maximum-sized event in the next 5 yr on at least one of the neighboring sources (less than 25 km distance away) decreases in L’Aquila from 10% to 7% after the earthquake occurrence, but still remains a maximum there along the central Apennines. The LASSCI models 2006 and 2009, featuring charac- teristic fault sources and time dependence, seem to be suitable for guidance in recon- struction and seismic retrofit in the central Appenines. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /101 (2011) | en |
dc.subject | seismic hazard | en |
dc.title | Fault-Based Earthquake Rupture Forecast in Central Italy: Remarks after the L'Aquila Mw 6.3 Event | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 404 – 412 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1785/0120090276 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
dc.contributor.author | Peruzza, L. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Pace, B. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Visini, F. | en |
dc.contributor.department | OGS, trieste | en |
dc.contributor.department | U n i v e r s i t à “ G . d ’ A n n u n z i o ” d i C h i e t i - P e s c a r a | en |
dc.contributor.department | U n i v e r s i t à “ G . d ’ A n n u n z i o ” d i C h i e t i - P e s c a r a | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | INOGS - Trieste | - |
crisitem.author.dept | DiSPUTer Università degli Studi “G. d’Annunzio”, Chieti-Pescara, Italy | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-9582-6443 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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Peruzza-etal2011BSSA.pdf | 363.18 kB | Adobe PDF |
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