Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8546
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Newhall, C.; Earth Observatory of Singapore | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Woo, G.; Risk Management Solutions | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2013-03-21T08:04:42Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2013-03-21T08:04:42Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8546 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely com- plicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational miti- gation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Elsevier Science Limited | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of volcanology and geothermal research | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /247-248(2012) | en |
dc.subject | eruption forecasting | en |
dc.subject | decision making | en |
dc.title | The scientific management of volcanic crises | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 181-189 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.016 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0377-0273 | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1872-6097 | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Newhall, C. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Woo, G. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earth Observatory of Singapore | en |
dc.contributor.department | Risk Management Solutions | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Risk Management Solutions | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4105-3278 | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | Existing users please Login |
---|---|---|---|---|
JVGR_marzocchi_etal_12.pdf | 671.13 kB | Adobe PDF |
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
39
checked on Feb 10, 2021
Page view(s)
110
checked on Apr 24, 2024
Download(s)
17
checked on Apr 24, 2024