Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8336
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Nanjo, K. Z.; Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Tsuruoka, H.; Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Yokoi, S.; Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Ogata, Y.; Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Falcone, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Hirata, N.; Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Ishigaki, Y.; Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Jordan, T. H.; Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Kasahara, K.; Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Obara, K.; Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Schorlemmer, D.; Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Shiomi, K.; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Zhuang, J.; Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-22T09:44:57Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2012-10-22T09:44:57Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2012-11 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8336 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space–time characteristics of earthquake clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next 24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake. Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Wiley-Blackwell | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Journal International | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 2 / 191 (2012) | en |
dc.subject | Time-series analysis | en |
dc.subject | Probabilistic forecasting | en |
dc.subject | Seismicity and tectonics | en |
dc.subject | Computational seismology | en |
dc.subject | Statistical seismology | en |
dc.subject | Asia | en |
dc.title | Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 653-658 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x | en |
dc.relation.references | Dietrich, J., 1994. A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. geophys. Res., 99, 2601–2618. Falcone, G., Console, R. & Murru, M., 2010. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Ann. Geophys., 53(3), 41–50. Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jones, L.M. & Reasenberg, P.A., 2005. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California, Nature, 435, 328–331. Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.H., 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188. Hirose, F., Miyaoka, K., Hayashimoto, N., Yamazaki, T. & Nakamura, M., 2011. Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw 9.0)—seismicity: foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and induced activity—, Earth Planets Space, 63, 513–518. Jordan, T.H., 2006. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick, Seismol. Res. Lett., 77(1), 3–6. Jordan, T.H. et al., 2011. Implications of recent events for CSEP testing of earthquake forecasts, in 2011 Annual Meeting of Seismological Society of America, Memphis, TN, 2011 April 13–15, 43pp. Lombardi, A.M. & Marzocchi, W., 2010. The assumption of Poisson seismic-rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(5A), 2293–2300. Marzocchi, W. & Lombardi, A.M., 2009. Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21302, doi:10.1029/2009GL040233. Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N. & Jordan, T.H., 2011. Overview of the first earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth Planets Space, 63(3), 159–169. Ogata, Y., 1999. Seismicity analyses through point-process modelling: a review, Pure appl. Geophys., 155(2–4), 471–507. Ogata,Y., 2011. Significant improvements of the space-time ETASmodel for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth Planets Space, 63(3), 217–229. Ogata,Y., 2012. Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity and triggered activity near Matsumoto, Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 87, 546–553 (in Japanese with English figure captions). Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. & Zhuang, J., 2012. Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in number, time, space and magnitude, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., submitted. Rhoades, D.A., Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J.D.&Imoto,M., 2011. Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models, Acta Geophys., 59, 728–747. Ruina, A., 1983. Slip instability and state variable friction laws, J. geophys. Res., 88(B12), 10 359–10 370. Schorlemmer, D. & Gerstenberger, M.C., 2007. RELM Testing Center, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 30–36. Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jackson, D.D. & Rhoades, D.A., 2007. Earthquake likelihood model Testing, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 17–29. Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D., Werner, M.J., Field, E.H., Jackson, D.D., Jordan, T.H. & the RELM Working Group, 2010. First results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment, Pure appl. Geophys., 167(8–9), 859–876. Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N., Schorlemmer, D., Euchner, F., Nanjo, K.Z. & Jordan, T.H., 2012. CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth Planets Space, in press. Werner, M.J. & Sornette, D., 2008. Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic rate estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments, J. geophys. Res., 113, JB08302, doi:10.1029/2007JB005427. Werner, M.J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 2011. High resolution long- and short-term earthquake forecasts for California, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 101(4), 1630–1648. Woessner, J. et al., 2011. A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence, J. geophys. Res., 116, B05305, doi:10.1029/2010JB007846. Zechar, J.D., Gerstenberger, M.C. & Rhoades, D.A., 2010a. Likelihoodbased tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(3), 1184–1195. Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Liukis, M., Yu, J., Euchner, F., Maechling, P.J.&Jordan, T.H., 2010b. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 22(12), 1836–1847, doi:10.1002/cpe.1519. Zhuang, J., 2011. Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, 63(3), 207–216. | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0956-540X | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1365-246X | en |
dc.contributor.author | Nanjo, K. Z. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Tsuruoka, H. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Yokoi, S. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Ogata, Y. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Falcone, G. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Hirata, N. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Ishigaki, Y. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Jordan, T. H. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Kasahara, K. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Obara, K. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Schorlemmer, D. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Shiomi, K. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Zhuang, J. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.department | Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA | en |
dc.contributor.department | National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.department | Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute University of Tokyo, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Univ. of Southern California, USA | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. | - |
crisitem.author.dept | University of Southern California, Department of Earth Science, Los Angeles | - |
crisitem.author.dept | National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-2867-9185 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-5953-2034 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-2554-4421 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4439-5388 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
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