Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7607
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Gasperini, P.; Università di Bologna | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Lolli, B.; Università di Bologna | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-01-27T09:00:40Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2012-01-27T09:00:40Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2009-07 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7607 | en |
dc.description.abstract | We compare the ability of three aftershock decay models proposed in the literature to reproduce the behavior of 24 real aftershock sequences of Southern California and Italy. In particular, we consider the Modified Omori Model (MOM), the Modified Stretched Exponential model (MSE) and the Band Limited Power Law (LPL). We show that, if the background rate is modeled properly, the MSE or the LPL reproduce the aftershock rate decay generally better than the MOM and are preferable, on the basis of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, for about one half of the sequences. In particular the LPL, which is usually preferable with respect to the MSE and fits well the data of most sequences, might represent a valid alternative to the MOM in real-time forecasts of aftershock probabilities. We also show that the LPL generally fits the data better than a purely empirical formula equivalent to the aftershock rate equation predicted by the rate- and state-dependent friction model. This indicates that the emergence of a negative exponential decay at long times is a general property of many aftershock sequences but also that the process of aftershock generation is not fully described by current physical models. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Elsevier | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 3–4 /175 | en |
dc.subject | Aftershock; Omori's model; Stretched exponential law; Band Limited Power Law; Background rate; Rate- and state-dependent friction law | en |
dc.title | An empirical comparison among aftershock decay models | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 183–193 | en |
dc.identifier.URL | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031920109000648 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.pepi.2009.03.011 | en |
dc.relation.references | Akaike, H., 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control AC 19, 716–723. Castello, B., Selvaggi, G., Chiarabba, C., Amato, A., 2005. Catalogo della sismicità italiana—CSI 1.0 (1981-2002). Available at: http://www.ingv.it/CSI/. CSTI Working Group, 2004) Catalogo strumentale dei terremoti Italiani dal 1981 al 1996, Version 1.1. Available at: http://ibogfs.df.unibo.it/user2/paolo/www/gndt/ Versione1 1/Leggimi.htm. Dennis, J.E., Schnabel, R.B., 1983. Numerical Methods for Unconstrained Optimization and Nonlinear Equations. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Dieterich, J.H., 1994. A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 2601–2618. Draper, D., 1995. Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty (with discussion). J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser. B 57, 45–97. Gardner, J.K., Knopoff, L., 1974. Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 64, 1363–1367. Gasperini, P., Lolli, B., 2006. Correlation between the parameters of the aftershock rate equation: implications for the forecasting of future sequences. Phys. Earth Plan. Int. 156, 41–58. Gerstenberger, M.C., Jones, L.M., Wiemer, S., 2007. Short-term aftershock probabilities: case studies in California. Seism. Res. Lett. 70, 66–77. Gross, S.J., Kissilinger, C., 1994. Test of models of aftershock rate decay. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 84, 1571–1579. Hurvich, C.M., Tsai, C.-L., 1989. Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika 76, 297–307. Kisslinger, C., 1993. The stretched exponential function as an alternative model for aftershock decay rate. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 1913–1921. Lolli, B., Gasperini, P., 2003. Aftershocks hazard in Italy. Part I: estimation of timemagnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence. J. Seismol. 7, 235–257. Lolli, B., Gasperini, P., 2006. Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after mainshock. Tectonophysics 423, 43–59. Lolli, B., Boschi, E., Gasperini, P., 2009. A comparative analysis of different models of aftershock rate decay by maximum likelihood estimation of simulated sequences. J. Geophys. Res. 114, B01305, doi:10.1029/2008JB005614. Nanjo, K.Z., Enescu, B., Shcherbatov, R., Turcotte, D.L., Iwata, T., Ogata, Y., 2007. Decay of aftershock activity for Japanese earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 112, B08309, doi:10.1029/2006JB004754. Narteau, C., Shebalin, P., Holschneider, M., 2002. Temporal limits of the power law aftershock decay rate. J. Geophys. Res. 107 (B12), doi:10.1029/2002JB001868 (art. no. 2359). Narteau, C., Shebalin, P., Hainzl, S., Zoller, G., Holschneider, M., 2003. Emergence of a band-limited power law in the aftershock decay rate of a slider-block model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (11), doi:10.1029/2003GL017110 (art. no. 1568). Ogata, Y., 1988. Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83, 9–27. Ouillon, G., Sornette, D., 2005. Magnitude-dependent Omori law: theory and empirical study. J. Geophys. Res. 110, B04306, doi:10.1029/2004JB003311. Postpischl, D., 1985. Catalogo dei terremoti italiani dall’anno 1000 al 1980, vol. 114 2B. Quaderni della Ricerca Scientifica, CNR, Rome. Schwarz, G., 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Stat. 6, 461–464. Utsu, T., 1961. A statistical study of the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys. Mag. 30, 521–605. | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | reserved | en |
dc.contributor.author | Gasperini, P. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Lolli, B. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Università di Bologna | en |
dc.contributor.department | Università di Bologna | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Università di Bologna | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5314-0563 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-4186-9055 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
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