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Authors: Marzocchi, W.* 
Sandri, L.* 
Selva, J.* 
Title: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting
Issue Date: 2007
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y
Keywords: Eruption forecasting
Long- and short-term volcanic hazard
Bayesian inference
Event tree
Fuzzy sets
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
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