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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/16987
Authors: | Spassiani, Ilaria* Taroni, Matteo* |
Title: | What Is the Effect of Seismic Swarms on Short-Term Seismic Hazard and Gutenberg-Richter b-Value Temporal Variation? Examples from Central Italy, October–November 2023 | Journal: | Geosciences | Series/Report no.: | /14 (2024) | Publisher: | MDPI | Issue Date: | Feb-2024 | DOI: | 10.3390/geosciences14020049 | Abstract: | A seismic hazard can be quantified by using probabilities. Modern seismic forecasting models (e.g., Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems) allow us to quantify the short-term variations in such probabilities. Indeed these probabilities change with time and space, in particular after strong seismic events. However, the short-term seismic hazard could also change during seismic swarms, i.e., a sequence with several small-/medium-sized events. The goal of this work is to quantify these changes, using the Italian Operational Earthquake Forecasting system, and also estimate the variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value. We focus our attention on three seismic swarms that occurred in Central Italy in October–November 2023. Our results indicate that short-term variations in seismic hazard are limited, less than an order of magnitude, and also that b-value variations are not significant. Placing our findings in a more general context, we can state that according to currently available models and catalogs, the occurrence of seismic swarms does not significantly affect the short-term seismic hazard. |
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geosciences-14-00049.pdf | Open Access Published Article | 930.67 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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