Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15737
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.date.accessioned | 2022-10-18T06:58:53Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-10-18T06:58:53Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15737 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used in recent years to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved twenty-eight experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics than the eruptions observed in recent decades, and that it is fundamental to include well prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | English | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Volcanica | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /5 (2022) | en_US |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/ | * |
dc.title | Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island | en_US |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en_US |
dc.description.pagenumber | 105-131 | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.30909/vol.05.01.105131 | en_US |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio | en_US |
dc.description.journalType | N/A or not JCR | en_US |
dc.relation.issn | 2610-3540 | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Tadini, Alessandro | - |
dc.contributor.author | Harris, Andrew | - |
dc.contributor.author | Morin, Julie | - |
dc.contributor.author | Bevilacqua, Andrea | - |
dc.contributor.author | Peltier, Aline | - |
dc.contributor.author | Aspinall, Willy | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ciolli, Stefano | - |
dc.contributor.author | Bachelery, Patrick | - |
dc.contributor.author | Bernard, Benjamin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Biren, Jonas | - |
dc.contributor.author | Brum da Silveira, Antonio | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cayol, Valerie | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chevrel, Oryaëlle | - |
dc.contributor.author | Coppola, Diego | - |
dc.contributor.author | Dietterich, Hannah | - |
dc.contributor.author | Donovan, Amy | - |
dc.contributor.author | Dorado, Olaya | - |
dc.contributor.author | Drenne, Stéphane | - |
dc.contributor.author | Dupéré, Olivier | - |
dc.contributor.author | Gurioli, Lucia | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kolzenburg, Stephan | - |
dc.contributor.author | Komorowski, Jean-Christophe | - |
dc.contributor.author | Labazuy, Philippe | - |
dc.contributor.author | Mangione, Domenico | - |
dc.contributor.author | Mannini, Stefano | - |
dc.contributor.author | Martel-Asselin, François | - |
dc.contributor.author | Médard, Etienne | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pailot-Bonnétat, Sophie | - |
dc.contributor.author | Rafflin, Victoria | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ramsey, Michael | - |
dc.contributor.author | Richter, Nicole | - |
dc.contributor.author | Vallejo, Silvia | - |
dc.contributor.author | Villeneuve, Nicolas | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zafrilla, Silvia | - |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | en_US |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | University of Cambridge | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Univ Paris Diderot, Inst Phys Globe Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cite, Observ Volcanol Piton Fournaise,UMR CNRS 7154, F-97418 La Plaine Des Cafres, France | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Aspinall & Associates, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire, UK | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Roma, Italy | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Departamento de Geologia and Laboratório de Tectonofísica e Tectónica Experimental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Universit e Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, OPGC, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, 63000 Clermont - Ferrand, France | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Department of Geology and Planetary Science, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-3603-0853 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-9601-4359 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0724-2593 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0005-301X | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6014-6042 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4603-4877 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0108-5486 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0333-5493 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9995-7552 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-7140-0050 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-9225-7441 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-1201-5448 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-7898-4343 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-3596-5294 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8062-4387 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5066-5153 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-1364-007X | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4518-3328 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4337-8797 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5946-530X | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-8000-9643 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-5713-6708 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-5173-9866 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-8117-9708 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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VOLC_2022.pdf | Open Access published article | 3.7 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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