Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/14809| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-08-31T07:28:56Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-08-31T07:28:56Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/14809 | - |
| dc.description | This simple and qualitative discussion is an attempt to include in a comprehensive framework the problem of earthquake forecasting and univocally clarify the meaning of "precursor" and the true importance of their study. It is also the starting point to present the potential of the electromagnetic precursor in the framework of classic precursors. The fact that seismic precursors are truly existing phenomena does not represent the solution to the problem of deterministic forecasting. Currently a precursor is not a prediction aid but an investigative tool of the earthquake preparation process: aka the complex mechanism of microfracturing, growth and self-organization of fractures that is necessary to produce ruptures in the crust. Scholz's "Theory of Dilatance" (ToD), improved and further developed for decades after 1960, remains one of the best explanations for the existence of observable precursors and still seems to highlight the only plausible common cause. ToD is presented here in an "extended" vision in the framework of geotechnical knowledge on rock fracturing in the laboratory. Dilatance is a systematic and necessary process with respect to rock breaking. It would itself be the ideal precursor to the earthquake if it did not lack the essential characteristic of being directly observable. At the moment, the only way to detect dilatance in nature is through its interaction with the surrounding environment and its ability to change the physical characteristics of the rock, that is, through secondary phenomena that it can cause. These phenomena sometimes visible on the surface are what we call precursors. We have reviewed the main "classic" precursors by examining them in the light of the ToD. The study of dilatance, which requires a comparative, systematic and extensive monitoring of precursor phenomena, could lead to a key of interpretation of the precursors themselves for the prediction of the earthquake. | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | Questa trattazione divulgativa è un tentativo di presentare il problema della previsione dei terremoti nella sua globalità per chiarire il significato di “precursore” e la vera utilità dello studio dei precursori. È anche lo spunto per presentare al pubblico le potenzialità del precursore elettromagnetico nel panorama dei precursori classici. Il fatto che i precursori sismici siano fenomeni realmente esistenti non rappresenta la soluzione al problema della previsione deterministica. Attualmente un precursore non è uno strumento di previsione ma un mezzo di sondaggio di ciò che chiamiamo “preparazione del sisma”: il complesso meccanismo di microfratturazione, accrescimento e autoorganizzazione delle fratture che è necessario a produrre la rottura nella crosta. La “teoria della Dilatanza” (TdD) di Scholz, più volte perfezionata dal 1960 ad oggi, resta una delle migliori trattazioni invocabili per motivare l’esistenza dei precursori documentati e sembra tuttora restare l’unica plausibile forma di inquadramento comune. Essa viene qui ripresentata in una visione “estesa” alla luce delle conoscenze geotecniche sulla fratturazione della roccia in laboratorio. La dilatanza è un processo sistematico e necessario rispetto alla rottura della roccia. Sarebbe essa stessa il precursore ideale del terremoto se non mancasse della caratteristica essenziale di essere visibile. Al momento l’unico modo per rilevare la dilatanza in natura è attraverso la sua interazione con l’ambiente circostante e la sua capacità di mutare le caratteristiche fisiche della roccia, cioè attraverso fenomeni secondari che essa può causare. Questi fenomeni, talvolta visibili in superficie, sono ciò che chiamiamo precursori. Abbiamo messo in rassegna i principali precursori “classici” esaminandoli alla luce della TdD. Lo studio della dilatanza, che richiede un monitoraggio comparato, sistematico ed esteso dei fenomeni precursori, potrebbe condurre alla definizione di una chiave interpretativa comune e generale dei precursori stessi per la previsione del terremoto. | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Progetto INGV “Pianeta Dinamico” (codice progetto INGV 1020.010) finanziato dal MIUR ("Fondo finalizzato al rilancio degli investimenti delle amministrazioni centrali dello Stato e allo sviluppo del Paese", legge 145/2018). | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | Italian | en_US |
| dc.publisher.name | INGV | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Quaderni di Geofisica INGV | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | 174/ (2021) | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/ | * |
| dc.subject | earthquake precursors | en_US |
| dc.subject | earthquake | en_US |
| dc.subject | precursors | en_US |
| dc.subject | electromagnetic precursors | en_US |
| dc.subject | precursori | en_US |
| dc.subject | terremoto | en_US |
| dc.subject | precursori elettromagnetici | en_US |
| dc.title | Il ruolo dei precursori sismici e l’importanza di un precursore elettromagnetico | en_US |
| dc.title.alternative | Role of seismic precursors and importance of an electromagnetic precursor | en_US |
| dc.type | article | en |
| dc.description.status | Published | en_US |
| dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en_US |
| dc.description.pagenumber | 1-40 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.URL | http://editoria.rm.ingv.it/quaderni/2021/quaderno174/ | en_US |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04.06. Seismology | en_US |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.13127/qdg/174 | en_US |
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| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e "precursori" | en_US |
| dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en_US |
| dc.relation.issn | 1590-2595 | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Nardi, Adriano | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Piersanti, Antonio | - |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en_US |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en_US |
| item.openairetype | article | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | it | - |
| item.grantfulltext | open | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-7211-2963 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-1814-5721 | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press | |
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| Precursori (Nardi, 2020).pdf | Open Access | 2.17 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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