The extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole of 2019 and associated Indian summer monsoon rainfall response

Abstract

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in 2019 was among the strongest on record, while the Indian Summer monsoon (ISM) was anomalously dry in June then very wet by September. We investigated the relationships between the IOD, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and ISM rainfall during 2019 with an atmospheric general circulation model forced by observed SST anomalies. The results show that the extremely positive IOD was conducive to a wetter-than-normal ISM, especially late in the season when the IOD strengthened and was associated with anomalous low-level divergence over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and convergence over India. However, a warm SST anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific contributed to low level divergence and decreased rainfall over India in June. These results help to better understand the influence of the tropical SST anomalies on the seasonal evolution of ISM rainfall during extreme IOD events.