Doubly stochastic models for volcanic vent opening probability and pyroclastic density current hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera

Abstract

This thesis was developed and supported thanks to the agreement between Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa (Convenzione INGV-SNS 2009-2011). The thesis has been partially developed in the framework of the project ‘V1 - Stima della pericolosità vulcanica in termini probabilistici’ funded by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. Partial support was also provided by the EU-funded project ‘MEDSUV - Mediterranean Supervolcanoes’ (grant 308665) and the COST Action ‘EJN - Expert Judgement Network: bridging the gap between scientific uncertainty and evidence-based decision making’ (IS1304).