Eruption forecasting and hazard assessment at INGV during the 2019 exercise at Campi Flegrei

Abstract

From 16 to 19 October 2019, the Italian Civil Protection (DPC) organized a crisis exercise at Campi Flegrei, called ExeFlegrei 2019, to verify internal procedures and communication flows towards/from institutions and towards population. At INGV the exercise allowed to verify monitoring communication workflows and to test and upgrade operational procedures for real-time eruption forecasting and hazard assessment. As regards the latter aspects, following the evolution of the volcanic activity as resulted from the issued bulletins at each time t0, the INGV team provided: - in terms of eruption forecasting, real-time probabilities (with 80% confidence interval) for unrest, magmatic unrest, and eruption in the month following t0, based on the BET_EF model (Marzocchi et al, 2008) calibrated during a long series of past elicitation experiments (Selva et al, 2012a) - in terms of scenario forecasting, real-time spatial probability maps for vent opening according to two different models (Selva et al, 2012b; Bevilacqua et al, 2015), conditional on the occurrence of an eruption - in terms of hazard assessment, real-time hazard and probability maps for tephra load accumulated at the ground, and real-time probability maps for the invasion of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), all conditional to the occurrence of an eruption.