The Mediterranean Forecasting System and its Calibration and Validation procedure

Abstract

INGV has developed fully operational short term forecasting system at the Mediterranean basin scale, which has demonstrated to be a valuable asset for the Institution, the Research Community, and for the Community at large. The INGV Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFSINGV) provides daily forecasts and weekly analysis of the main physical parameters in the Mediterranean Basin (http://medforecast.bo.ingv.it/). The available variables provide continuous monitoring of the flow field evolution in the recent past and daily 10days forecast, contributing to enhancing understanding of the ocean and supporting better management of the marine environment (marine security, fisheries, environmental and resources protection, naval operations and tourism). The system consists of a coupled hydrodynamicwave model based on NEMO code with a data assimilation component. The model horizontal resolution is 1/16 of a degree and is resolved over 72 unevenly spaced vertical levels, from surface up to 5500m. The system also manages an operational database, both in real time and delayed mode, which provides all the boundary conditions (initial conditions, lateral and atmospheric forcing fields) and the observed data to be assimilated, constraining the forecast error below acceptable values.