Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10696
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dc.date.accessioned2018-02-15T11:04:05Z-
dc.date.available2018-02-15T11:04:05Z-
dc.date.issued2016-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/10696-
dc.description.abstractAlthough most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000–2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010–2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofGeochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystemsen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries/17 (2016)en_US
dc.titleA new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcanoen_US
dc.typearticle-
dc.description.statusPublisheden_US
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden_US
dc.description.pagenumber2539–2555en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2016GC006327en_US
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischioen_US
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen_US
dc.contributor.authorTonini, Roberto-
dc.contributor.authorSandri, Laura-
dc.contributor.authorRouwet, Dmitri-
dc.contributor.authorCaudron, Corentin-
dc.contributor.authorMarzocchi, Warner-
dc.contributor.authorSuparjan, null-
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen_US
item.grantfulltextrestricted-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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