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Authors: Lombardi, A. M. 
Title: Some reasoning on the RELM-CSEP Likelihood-Based Tests
Issue Date: 2014
Series/Report no.: /66 (2014)
DOI: 10.1186/1880-5981-66-4
Keywords: Statistical tests;Earthquake forecast;Point processes
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
Abstract: The null hypothesis is the essence of any statistical test: this is basically a comparison of what we observe with what we would expect to see if the null hypothesis was true. In this work, I explore the suitability of the null hypothesis of likelihood-based tests (LBTs), which are often adopted by the laboratories of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), to check earthquake forecast models. First, I discuss the LBT in the wider context of classical statistical hypothesis testing. Then, I present some cases in which the null hypothesis of LBT is not appropriate for determining the merits of earthquake forecast models. I justify these results from a theoretical point of view, within the framework of point process theory. Finally, I propose a possible upgrade of LBT to enable the correct assessment of the forecasting capability of earthquake models. This study may provide new insights to the CSEP LBT.
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