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Toda, Shinji
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Toda, Shinji
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- PublicationOpen AccessRole of Multiple Stress Steps in Earthquake Triggering and Application to Near-Real Time Aftershock Forecasting(2007-05-31)
; ;Toda, S.; Active Fault Research Center, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan; ; ; ; ;Cocco, Massimo; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Console, Rodolfo; INGV, Rome, Italy ;Wiemer, Stefan; ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; ; Role of Multiple Stress Steps in Earthquake Triggering and Application to Near-Real Time Aftershock Forecasting90 179 - PublicationOpen AccessSurface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions(2022-11)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments.88 9