Mauri, G.

Volcanic risk at Vesuvius is one of the highest in the world due to the ~670,000 inhabitants living in the Red Zone, the area exposed to both pyroclastic flows and tephra fallout, to be evacuated before renewal of any eruptive activity. The national emergency plan for Vesuvius builds its risk zonation on a scenario similar to the last sub-Plinian eruption, which occurred in 1631. This study aims at providing new insights on the geometry of the caldera associated with this historical eruption. The impact of past Vesuvius eruptions on present-day soil CO2 concentration has been investigated by means of an extended geochemical survey carried out for identifying the circulation pathways of hydrothermal fluids inside the volcano. We performed 4,018 soil CO2 concentration measurements over the whole Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex, covering an area of 50 km2. Besides relatively low values, the results show a significant spatial CO2 concentration heterogeneity over Somma-Vesuvius ranging from the atmospheric value (~400 ppm) up to ~24,140 ppm. The summit of Vesuvius shows an area with anomalous CO2 concentrations well matching the crater rim of the 1906 eruption. Along the cone flanks, secondary CO2 anomalies highlight a roughly circular preferential pathway detected along 8 radial profiles at distances between ~840 m and ~1,150 m from the bottom of the present-day crater resulting from the last eruption in 1944. In depth review of the available literature highlights an agreement between this circle-like shaped anomaly and the 1631 sub-Plinian eruption caldera boundary. Indeed, based on the historical chronicles the depression produced by the 1631 eruption had a diameter of 1,686 m, whereas the CO2 circular anomaly indicates a diameter of 1,956 m. Finally, the results were compared with a 3-D density model obtained from a recent gravity survey that corroborates both the literature and the CO2 data in terms of potential buried structure at the base of the Vesuvius cone.

Four-dimensional or time-lapse microgravity monitoring has been used effectively on volcanoes for decades to characterize the changes in subsurface volcanic systems. With measurements typically lasting from a few days to weeks and then repeated a year later, the spatial resolution of theses studies is often at the expense of temporal resolution and vice versa. Continuous gravity studies with one to two instruments operating for a short period of time (weeks to months) have shown enticing evidence of very rapid changes in the volcanic plumbing system (minutes to hours) and in one case precursory signals leading to eruptive activity were detected. The need for true multi-instrument networks is clear if we are to have both the temporal and spatial resolution needed for effective volcano monitoring. However, the high cost of these instruments is currently limiting the implementation of continuous microgravity networks. An interim approach to consider is the development of a collaborative network of researchers able to bring multiple instruments together at key volcanoes to investigate multitemporal physical changes in a few type volcanoes. However, to truly move forward, it is imperative that new low-cost instruments are developed to increase the number of instruments available at a single site. Only in this way can both the temporal and spatial integrity of monitoring be maintained. Integration of these instruments into a multiparameter network of continuously recording sensors is essential for effective volcano monitoring and hazard mitigation.