Discriminating among distinct source models of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake by modelling intensity data through full wavefield seismograms

Abstract

Macroseismic intensities are the only available data for most historical earthquakes and often represent the unique source of information for crucial events in the definition of seismic hazard. In this paper, we attempt at getting insight into source characteristics by reproducing the observed intensity field. As a test case, we study the source of 1908 Messina Straits earthquake ( M W = 7.1), by testing three distinct fault models deduced from the analysis of geodeticdata.Startingfromthestaticslipdistribution,wedevelop kinematicsourcemodelsfor the investigated fault and compute full waveform synthetic seismograms in a 1-D structural model, also accounting for anelastic attenuation. Then, we convert both computed peak- ground acceleration (PGA) and peak-ground velocity (PGV) to macroseismic intensity at 100 selected sites, by means of specific empirical relations for the Italian region. By comparing the original data separately with PGA- and PGV-based intensity fields, we discriminate among the tested faults and determine the best values for the investigated kinematic parameters of the source. We also perform a misfit analysis for the best source model, in order to investigate the dependence of the results on the selected parametrization. The results of the analysis indicate that among the tested models, the one characterized by an east-dipping fault, with strike- oriented NS slightly rotated clockwise, better explains the observed macroseismic field of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Besides, the fracture nucleated at the southern end of the fault and ruptured northward, producing considerable directivity effects. This is in agreement with the published results obtained from the investigation of the historical seismograms. We alsodeterminerealisticvalues fortherupturevelocityand therise-time.Ourstudyconfirms the greatpotentialofthemacroseismicdata,demonstratingthattheycontainenoughinformationto constrain important characteristics of the fault, which can be retrieved by using complex source models and computing complete wavefield. Moreover, we also show that the simultaneous comparison of both PGA- and PGV-based synthetic macroseismic fields with the original intensities provides tighter constraints for discriminating among different source models, with respect to what attainable from each of them