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Convertito, Vincenzo
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Convertito, Vincenzo
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vincenzo.convertito@ingv.it
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77 results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 77
- PublicationOpen AccessOn the still unpredictable but recurrent lahars: the November 26, 2022 case study at Ischia island (Italy)(2024-03-08)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Lahars, landslides and debris flows are rapid natural phenomena that can heavily impact on and modify the environment, not only that from which they are triggered but also the one in which they propagate or leave deposits. In particular, lahars can reach significant runout distances from source areas (e.g., several km) and this can mainly depend, among other factors, on the morphology experienced by such propagation. There are cases in the recent history of natural occurrences in which lahars impacted catastrophically on rural and urban settings, such as for example at Nevado del Ruiz volcano (Colombia) in 1985 causing the death of thousands of people living around there. A more recent event occurred on November 26, 2022 at Ischia island (Italy), which is an active volcano particularly subjected to the recurrence of these phenomena. In this case, the emplacement of some lahars caused the death of a few tens of people and the damaging of tens of building, besides the direct impact on local agriculture and tourism. In the nearby Neapolitan volcanic area, several other lahar events occurred in the historical past, not only during but also after or well after explosive eruptions, as the evidence that these phenomena are still to be considered as complex and often unpredictable extreme natural events, also exacerbated by the climate changes, but also that they have some recurrence that cannot be neglected. Such kind of recurrence is mainly related to the local weather, which can even affect the intrinsic behavior of the flows that detach from the source areas and invade the territory. On the other hand, this is not a strictly statistical issue, as there are instrumental measurements that support the fact that heavy rains can exacerbate a landscape already prone to sliding, avalanching, and other catastrophic phenomena. For this, the November 26, 2022 Ischia case study was chosen with the goal of reconstructing the physical features that led to the lahar generation and invasion, which is something that might occur in the future but that should be experienced with a dedicated scientific and territorial consciousness. What was done is an integration of multidisciplinary approaches, corroborated by data from the INGV-OV monitoring network installed on the volcano, capable of detecting the otherwise lost flow timing and dynamical behavior. In particular, the seismic evidence that accompanied the Ischia lahar events, along with the consideration of some lithological features leading to an estimation of flow velocity and dynamic pressure, allow to discriminate multiple lahar pulses over the early morning of November 26, 2022. The main findings of this contribution are that the potential of the Ischia lahars had a sort of recharge timespan which depended on the local weather and lithological features, while the threshold of the lahar trigger depended on the hydrogeological conditions. The seismic reconstruction of the entire event allowed to quantify the first of these two critical issues at Ischia island.48 11 - PublicationOpen Accessb map evaluation and on-fault stress state for the Antakya 2023 earthquakes(2024-01-18)
; ; ; ; ; The analysis of on-fault seismicity can enlighten the current stress state on the fault itself. Its definition is relevant to individuate fault patches that have not released all the accumulated stress even after the occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake. We use the b value to characterize the stress state on the fault of the Antakya 2023 main events, being b inversely proportional to the stress. The small magnitude seismicity occurring on the maximum slip fault-patches does not allow the b value estimation. This represents a strong indication that the maximum slip zone released most of the stress previously accumulated. Conversely, the lowest b values are located at the bends of the faults and close to the nucleation zone suggesting that, there, still exists not released stress implying that it could be reactivated in the future.25 9 - PublicationOpen Accessb value enlightens different rheological behaviour in Campi Flegrei caldera(2024)
; ; ; ; ; The Campi Flegrei caldera is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world and since 2005 it is in unrest. Here we evaluate the 3D tomography of the b value at the Campi Flegrei volcanic area revealing a very good correlation with the structure of the hydrothermal system involved in the bradiseismic phenomenon. More precisely, we observe the smallest b-values where we expect the higher stress/strain concentration, namely in the caprock, and for the deepest seismicity. Conversely, the largest b values are observed where the porosity of the medium allows the passage of the volcanic gases toward the surface. Values of b close to typical tectonic ones are observed where the presence of faulting structures is well documented.134 14 - PublicationOpen AccessThe 2 December 2020 MW 4.6, Kallithea (Viotia), central Greece earthquake: a very shallow damaging rupture detected by InSAR and its role in strain accommodation by neotectonic normal faultsOn 2 December 2020 10:54 UTC a shallow earthquake of MW (NOA) = 4.6 occurred near the village of Kallithea (to the east of Thiva), central Greece, which, despite its modest size, was locally damaging. Using InSAR and GNSS data, we mapped a permanent change on the ground surface, i.e., a subsidence of 7 cm. Our geodetic inversion modelling indicates that the rupture occurred on a WNW–ESE striking, SSW-dipping normal fault, with a dip-angle of ~ 54°. The maximum slip value was 0.35 m, which was reached at a depth of about 1100 m. The analysis of broadband seismological data also provided kinematic source parameters such as moment magnitude MW = 4.6 (± 0.1), rupture area 6.3 km2 and mean slip 0.16 m, which agree with the values obtained from the geodetic model. The effects of the earthquake were disproportionate to its moderate magnitude, probably due to its unusually shallow depth (slip centroid at 1.1 km) and the high efficiency of the earthquake (radiation efficiency = 0.62). The geodetic data inversion also indicates that within the uncertainty limits of the technique, three scenarios are possible (a) the earthquake responsible for the mapped surface deformation may have occurred on a ~ 2-km long, blind normal fault different from the well-known active Kallithea normal fault or (b) could have occurred along a secondary fault that branches off the Kallithea fault or (c) it may have occurred along the Kallithea fault itself, but with its geometrical configuration could not be modelled with available data. We have also concluded that with a high dip-angle Kallithea Fault forward model it is not possible to fit the geodetic data. The rupture initiated at a very shallow depth (1.1 km) and it could not propagate deeper possibly because of a structural barrier down-dip. The 2020 event near Kallithea highlighted the structural complexity in this region of the Asopos Rift valley as the reactivation of the WNW–ESE structures indicates their significant role in strain accommodation and that they still represent a seismic hazard for this region.
41 26 - PublicationOpen AccessEvaluation of the b Maps on the Faults of the Major (M > 7) South California Earthquakes(2024)
; ; ; ; ; We use the Godano et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ea002205) method for evaluating the b maps of the faults associated with the largest earthquakes M ≥ 7.0 that occurred in California. The method allows an independent evaluation of the b parameter, avoiding the overlap of the cells and the omission of some earthquakes, while keeping all the available information in the catalog. We analyzed four large earthquakes: Landers, Hector Mine, Baja California, and Searles Valley. The maps obtained confirm that the b value can be considered as a strain meter and allow us to elucidate the presence of barriers, such as obstacles to the propagation of the fracture, on the fault of the analyzed earthquakes. A further estimated parameter is the time window during which aftershocks occur in the cell, Δt. This quantity is very useful for a better definition of the aftershock generation mechanism. It reveals where the stress is released in a short time interval and how the complexity of the faulting process controls the occurrence of aftershocks on the fault, and also the duration of the entire sequence.25 16 - PublicationOpen AccessTesting the Predictive Power of b Value for Italian Seismicity(2024)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;A very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution has been thoroughly tested using synthetic seismic catalogues. Subsequently, the method was employed to assess the capability of the b-value in differentiating between foreshocks and aftershocks, confirming previous findings regarding the Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence. However, a blind algorithm reveals that the discriminative ability of the b-value necessitates a meticulous selection of the catalogue, thereby reducing the predictability of large events occurring subsequent to a prior major earthquake.27 9 - PublicationOpen Access
29 3 - PublicationOpen AccessSeismic imaging of fluid-filled inherited structures of the Northern Thessaly (Greece) seismic gap(2023)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; e present the first seismic imaging of the crustal volume affected by the March April 2021 Thessaly sequence by applying a 3D seismic tomography to the aftershocks recorded by an unprecedented number of stations. The results, in terms of VP, VS, and VP/VS ratio and earthquakes’ location parameters, depict blind fluid-filled inherited structures within the Northern Thessaly seismic gap. The tomographic images highlight the basal detachment accommodating the Pelagonian nappe onto the carbonate of the Gavrovo unit. The high VP/VS (>1.85) where most of the seismicity occurs increases from SE to NW, showing possible fluid accumulation in the NW edge of the seismogenic volume that could have contributed to the sequence evolution. The aftershock relocations correlate well with the fault planes of the three mainshocks proposed by several geodetic models, but also show additional possible faults sub-parallel and antithetical to the main structures, not to be overlooked for future seismic risk mitigation39 11 - PublicationOpen AccessTESLA, A Tool for Automatic Earthquake Low-Frequency Spectral Level Estimation: The Study of 2013 St. Gallen Earthquake Fault-Plane SolutionsOne of the challenges of seismicity monitoring is to achieve multiparametric catalogs complete down to small magnitude using automatic procedures. This can be obtained using seismic networks with high performance and robust, automatic algorithms able to process large data sets, limiting the manual operations of the analysts. The characterization of microseismicity is fundamental to study its spatial and temporal evolution and to define the seismic activity of fault systems. Among the source parameters of microseismic events, focal mechanisms are not generally calculated and, when available in the seismic catalog, their reliability may be dubious. We propose a new tool, named Tool for automatic Earthquake low‐frequency Spectral Level estimAtion (TESLA), to automatically calculate the P‐ and S‐wave low‐frequency spectral levels. Indeed, it has been shown that these levels can be inverted together with P‐phase polarities to better constrain the focal mechanism or to estimate the seismic moment. TESLA is designed to invert the P‐ and S‐displacement spectra searching the optimal signal window to use for the spectral analysis. Using a signal window of fixed duration, although variable according to the earthquake magnitude, is not always the appropriate choice, especially when microseismicity is analyzed. TESLA performs three main tasks for both P and S phases: (1) a systematic exploration of several signal windows to use for the computation of displacement spectra, (2) the spectral analysis for all the selected signal windows, and (3) the evaluation of the best‐displacement spectra through quantitative criteria and the estimation of the low‐frequency spectral levels. The tool is first validated and then applied to the 2013 St. Gallen, Switzerland, induced seismic sequence to calculate the P and S low‐frequency spectral level ratios, which are inverted to estimate focal mechanisms. Our results show the robustness of the tool to process microseismicity and the benefit of using it to automatically analyze large waveform data sets.
34 12 - PublicationOpen AccessA data-driven artificial neural network model for the prediction of ground motion from induced seismicity: The case of The Geysers geothermal fieldGround-motion models have gained foremost attention during recent years for being capable of predicting ground-motion intensity levels for future seismic scenarios. They are a key element for estimating seismic hazard and always demand timely refinement in order to improve the reliability of seismic hazard maps. In the present study, we propose a ground motion prediction model for induced earthquakes recorded in The Geysers geothermal area. We use a fully connected data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) model to fit ground motion parameters. Especially, we used data from 212 earthquakes recorded at 29 stations of the Berkeley–Geysers network between September 2009 and November 2010. The magnitude range is 1.3 and 3.3 moment magnitude (Mw), whereas the hypocentral distance range is between 0.5 and 20 km. The ground motions are predicted in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped spectral acceleration (SA) at T=0.2, 0.5, and 1 s. The predicted values from our deep learning model are compared with observed data and the predictions made by empirical ground motion prediction equations developed by Sharma et al. (2013) for the same data set by using the nonlinear mixed-effect (NLME) regression technique. For validation of the approach, we compared the models on a separate data made of 25 earthquakes in the same region, with magnitudes ranging between 1.0 and 3.1 and hypocentral distances ranging between 1.2 and 15.5 km, with the ANN model providing a 3% improvement compared to the baseline GMM model. The results obtained in the present study show a moderate improvement in ground motion predictions and unravel modeling features that were not taken into account by the empirical model. The comparison is measured in terms of both the R2 statistic and the total standard deviation, together with inter-event and intra-event components.
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