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Authors: Lippiello, E.* 
Giacco, F.* 
De Arcangelis, L.* 
Marzocchi, W.* 
Godano, C.* 
Title: Parameter Estimation in the ETAS Model: Approximations and Novel Methods
Issue Date: 2014
Series/Report no.: /104 (2014)
DOI: 10.1785/0120130148
Keywords: etas model
parameter estimation
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
Abstract: Branching processes provide an accurate description of earthquake occurrence in the short term (days to a few weeks). Yet, the implementation of these models is not usually straightforward because of the difficulties in estimating the parameters. Indeed, log-likelihood estimation involves a spatial integral that cannot be analytically evaluated and is difficult to implement in numerical codes. Here we present a novel technique that allows for an accurate, stable, and relatively fast param- eter inversion procedure. We study the efficiency of this technique using synthetic epidemic-type aftershock sequence catalogs with a set of parameters known a priori. Results show the efficiency of the novel technique and illustrate the limits of recently proposed approximations
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