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Authors: Barba, S.* 
Finocchio, D.* 
Sikdar, E.* 
Burrato, P.* 
Title: Modeling the interseismic deformation of a thrust system: seismogenic potential of the Southern Alps
Issue Date: 4-Mar-2013
Series/Report no.: 3/25 (2013)
DOI: 10.1111/ter.12026
Keywords: interseismic deformation
Montello thrust
Southern Alps
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology 
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones 
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology 
Abstract: This article focuses on the Montello thrust system in the Eastern Southern Alps as a potential seismogenic source. This system is of particular interest because of its lack of historical seismicity. Nevertheless, the system is undergoing active deformation. We developed a finite-element model using visco-elasto-plastic rheology. The free parameters of the model (essentially, the locking status of the three thrusts included in the study), were constrained by matching the observed horizontal GPS and vertical levelling data. We show that the amount of interseismic fault locking, and thus the seismic potential, is not necessarily associated with the fastest-slipping faults. More specifically, the locked Bassano thrust has a greater seismic potential than the freely slipping Montello thrust. The findings suggest that faults with subtle evidence of Quaternary activity should be carefully considered when creating seismic hazard maps.
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