Lava flow susceptibility map of mt etna based on numerical simulations

Abstract

We constructed maps of probability of lava inundation using computer simulations considering the past eruptive behaviour of the Mt. Etna volcano and data deriving from monitoring networks. The basic a priori assumption is that new volcanoes will not form far from existing ones and that such a distribution can be performed using a Cauchy kernel. Geophysical data are useful to update or fine tune the initial Cauchy kernel to better reflect the distribution of future volcanism. In order to obtain a final susceptibility map, a statistical analysis permits a classification of Etna’s flank eruptions into twelve types. The simulation method consists of creating a probability surface of the location of future eruption vents and segmenting the region according to the most likely historical eruption on which to base the simulation. The paths of lava flows were calculated using the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model, allowing us to simulate the discharge rate dependent spread of lava as a function of time.