Deliverable # D3.01.4 Probability of occurrence for earthquakes generated by individual faults and the associated uncertainties

Abstract

Probabilities and uncertainties were calculated based on the approach developed by Akinci et al. (2008). The method was applied to the whole Italian territory using a dataset that integrates individual seismogenic sources derived from both geological/geophysical data and macroseismic data (see Basili et al., 2008, for definitions). We designed two model approaches: one that uses geological slip rates; another that uses slip rates derived from the finite element model developed by Barba et al, 2007. As for recurrence we adopted the Poisson and the Renewal BPT models with aperiodicity a equal to 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7, all for a prediction in the next 30 years. Complete results of these procedures are given in tabular form at the end of this document.