Importance of Mapping Design Earthquakes: Insights for the Southern Apennines, Italy

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is currently the soundest basis for the rational evaluation of ground-motion hazard for site-specific engineering design and assessment purposes. An increasing number of building codes worldwide acknowledge the uniform hazard spectra as the reference to determine design actions on structures and to select input ground motions for seismic structural analysis. This is the case, for example, in Italy where the new seismic code also requires the seismic input for nonlinear dynamic analysis to be selected on the basis of dominating events, for example, identified via disaggregation of seismic hazard. In the present study, the design earthquakes expressed in terms of representative magnitude (M), distance (R), and ε were investigated for a wide region in the southern Apennines, Italy. To this aim, the hazards corresponding to peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1 sec with a return period of 475 yr were disaggregated. For each of the disaggregation variables the shape of the joint and marginal probability density functions were studied. The first two modes expressed by M, R, and ε were extracted and mapped for the study area. The results shown provide additional information, in terms of source and ground-motion parameters, to be used along with the standard hazard maps to better select the design earthquakes. The analyses also allow us to assess how various frequency ranges of the design spectrum are differently contributed by seismic sources in the study area.