Tsunami Risk Perception in Southern Italy

Abstract

We present the results of an ongoing research for assessing tsunami risk perception in southern Italy. The study is motivated by the need of addressing a sound communication strategy for tsunami risk reduction, related to the activities of the Tsunami Alert Centre (CAT) of INGV, operating within the framework of the Italian civil protection system. The area of the second step of this study includes five regions of Italy (Basilicata, Calabria, Molise, Puglia, Sicily), facing on Adriatic, Ionian and Tyrrhenian seas, located in one of the most hazardous areas of the Mediterranean. In all the area the memory of relevant tsunamis is loose, since the last destructive event dates back to 1908 (due to the Messina-Reggio Calabria M~7 earthquake). The main goal of this study is to verify how people’s perception of tsunami risk compares with the hazard assessed by scientific data, and which are the main factors controlling people’s knowledge and awareness. We analysed a sample of more than 1,600 interviewees representing about 4 million people living in the coastal municipalities of the five considered regions. Results show that risk perception appears to be generally low, with significant differences among different areas, likely due to the the time elapsed since the last events. The survey results for the first two investigated regions (Calabria and Puglia, see Cerase et al., NHESS, 2019) showed that people’s perception and understanding of tsunamis are affected by media accounts of the mega-tsunamis of Sumatra 2004 and Japan 2011. At the same time, the risk posed by small tsunamis is basically underrated or neglected, posing some critical questions for risk mitigation strategies, particularly in touristic areas. Furthermore, the survey’s results show that for lay people the word ‘tsunami’ has a different meaning with respect to the Italian traditional word ‘maremoto’, implying that the same physical phenomenon would be understood in two different ways by younger, educated people and elders with low education level. In addition, people have high expectations from authorities, CPAs, research institutions about warnings. Moreover, living in different coastal areas appears to have a significant influence on the way tsunami hazard is perceived: Interviewees of Tyrrhenian Calabria are more likely to associate tsunami risk to volcanoes with respect to those living in the Ionian coastal areas, coherently with the presence of Aeolian volcanic islands and feared submarine volcanoes in the Tyrrhenian. A somehow unexpected result is that TV emerges as the most relevant source of knowledge for 90% of the sample. Some categories declared to prefer getting early warnings through broadcast media and sirens rather than receiving by SMS or apps, suggesting the need for redundancy and modulation of EW messages. We will present an update of the survey which is presently ongoing, related to the five regions. These results could help in addressing risk communication and mitigation policies.