From field data to numerical modeling: evaluating simplified physical models for assessing pyroclastic density current hazard at Somma-Vesuvio (Italy)

Abstract

Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC) are one of the highest sources of hazard during volcanic eruptions. Despite some of their complex processes are still poorly known, much effort has been put forward over the past years to develop simplified numerical models that take advantage from the shallow-water approximation of Navier-Stokes equations. The employment of such codes for the construction of probabilitstic PDC invasion maps are of great interest for Civil Protection authorities, but the quantification of uncertainty associated with each model still remains a critical issue. Our project is aimed at the validation of existing, well-established shallow-water codes (Box-Model and TITAN2D) by using input parameters reconstructed after field data from two eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius (Pompeii and AD 472 “Pollena”). Results will be employed for the definition of uncertainty bounds for probabilistic PDC invasion maps for the Vesuvian area developed after using such codes.