The 1976 Guatemala Earthquake: ESI Scale and Probabilistic/Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Approaches

Abstract

A hazard assessment of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake (M = 7.5) was conducted to achieve a better definition of the seismic hazard. The assessment was based on the environmental e ects that had e ectively contributed to the high destructive impact of that event. An interdisciplinary approach was adopted by integrating: (1) historical data; (2) co-seismic geological e ects in terms of Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) scale intensity values; and (3) ground shaking data estimated by a probabilistic/deterministic approach. A detailed analysis of primary and secondary e ects was conducted for a set of 24 localities, to obtain a better evaluation of seismic intensity. The new intensity values were compared with the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) distribution estimated using a probabilistic/deterministic hazard analysis approach for the target area. Our results are evidence that the probabilistic/deterministic hazard analysis procedures may result in very di erent indications on the PGA distributions. Moreover, PGA values often display significant discrepancy from the macroseismic intensity values calculated with the ESI scale. Therefore, the incorporation of the environmental earth e ects into the probabilistic/deterministic hazard analysis appears to be mandatory in order to achieve a more accurate seismic estimation.