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Phillips, Jeremy C
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Phillips, Jeremy C
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe Influence of Particle Concentration on the Formation of Settling-Driven Gravitational Instabilities at the Base of Volcanic CloudsSettling-driven gravitational instabilities observed at the base of volcanic ash clouds have the potential to play a substantial role in volcanic ash sedimentation. They originate from a narrow, gravitationally unstable region called a Particle Boundary Layer (PBL) that forms at the lower cloud-atmosphere interface and generates downward-moving ash fingers that enhance the ash sedimentation rate. We use scaled laboratory experiments in combination with particle imaging and Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) techniques to investigate the effect of particle concentration on PBL and finger formation. Results show that, as particles settle across an initial density interface and are incorporated within the dense underlying fluid, the PBL grows below the interface as a narrow region of small excess density. This detaches upon reaching a critical thickness, that scales with (Formula presented.), where (Formula presented.) is the kinematic viscosity and (Formula presented.) is the reduced gravity of the PBL, leading to the formation of fingers. During this process, the fluid above and below the interface remains poorly mixed, with only small quantities of the upper fluid phase being injected through fingers. In addition, our measurements confirm previous findings over a wider set of initial conditions that show that both the number of fingers and their velocity increase with particle concentration. We also quantify how the vertical particle mass flux below the particle suspension evolves with time and with the particle concentration. Finally, we identify a dimensionless number that depends on the measurable cloud mass-loading and thickness, which can be used to assess the potential for settling-driven gravitational instabilities to form. Our results suggest that fingers from volcanic clouds characterised by high ash concentrations not only are more likely to develop, but they are also expected to form more quickly and propagate at higher velocities than fingers associated with ash-poor clouds.
41 10 - PublicationOpen AccessA Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks(2017)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; Volcanic water-sediment flows, commonly known as lahars, can often pose a higher threat to population and infrastructure than primary volcanic hazardous processes such as tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs). Lahars are volcaniclastic flows of water, volcanic debris and entrained sediments that can travel long distances from their source, causing severe damage by impact and burial. Lahars are frequently triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall occurring after explosive eruptions, and their occurrence depends on numerous factors including the spatio-temporal rainfall characteristics, the spatial distribution and hydraulic properties of the tephra deposit, and the pre- and post-eruption topography. Modeling (and forecasting) such a complex system requires the quantification of aleatory variability in the lahar triggering and propagation. To fulfill this goal, we develop a novel framework for probabilistic hazard assessment of lahars within a multi-hazard environment, based on coupling a versatile probabilistic model for lahar triggering (a Bayesian Belief Network: Multihaz) with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation (LaharFlow). Multihaz allows us to estimate the probability of lahars of different volumes occurring by merging varied information about regional rainfall, scientific knowledge on lahar triggering mechanisms and, crucially, probabilistic assessment of available pyroclastic material from tephra fallout and PDCs. LaharFlow propagates the aleatory variability modeled by Multihaz into hazard footprints of lahars. We apply our framework to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy) because: (1) the volcano is strongly lahar-prone based on its previous activity, (2) there are many possible source areas for lahars, and (3) there is high density of population nearby. Our results indicate that the size of the eruption preceding the lahar occurrence and the spatial distribution of tephra accumulation have a paramount role in the lahar initiation and potential impact. For instance, lahars with initiation volume ≥105 m3 along the volcano flanks are almost 60% probable to occur after large-sized eruptions (~VEI ≥ 5) but 40% after medium-sized eruptions (~VEI4). Some simulated lahars can propagate for 15 km or reach combined flow depths of 2 m and speeds of 5–10 m/s, even over flat terrain. Probabilistic multi-hazard frameworks like the one presented here can be invaluable for volcanic hazard assessment worldwide.265 139 - PublicationRestrictedResults of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study(2016)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;; ; ; ; ;; ;; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~20% for the weak plume and ~10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simpli- fied treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.314 43