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Barsotti, Sara
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Barsotti, Sara
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe European Volcano Observatories and their use of the aviation colour code system(2024)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code278 17 - PublicationOpen Access2021–2023 Unrest and Geodetic Observations at Askja Volcano, Iceland(2024)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ;Unrest began in July 2021 at Askja volcano in the Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) of Iceland. Its most recent eruption, in 1961, was predominantly effusive and produced ∼0.1 km3 lava field. The last plinian eruption at Askja occurred in 1875. Geodetic measurements between 1983 and 2021 detail subsidence of Askja, decaying in an exponential manner. At the end of July 2021, inflation was detected at Askja volcano, from GNSS observations and Sentinel‐1 interferograms. The inflationary episode can be divided into two periods from the onset of inflation until September 2023. An initial period until 20 September 2021 when geodetic models suggest transfer of magma (or magmatic fluids) from within the shallowest part of the magmatic system (comprising an inflating and deflating source), potentially involving silicic magma. A following period when one source of pressure increase at shallow depth can explain the observations.102 14 - PublicationOpen AccessLava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba(2023-09)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;The 6-month-long effusive eruption at the Fagradalsfjall volcano in 2021 is the most visited eruption site in Iceland to date (June 2023), and it needed intense lava flow hazard assessment. In this study we document how strategies for lava flow modeling were implemented using the stochastic model MrLavaLoba to evaluate hazards during this effusive event. Overall, the purposes were threefold: (a) pre-eruption simulations to investigate potential lava inundation of critical infrastructure, (b) syn-eruption simulations for short-term (2-week time frame) lava flow hazard assessment and (c) syn-eruption simulations for long-term (months to years) hazard assessments. Additionally, strategies for lava barrier testing were developed, and syn-eruption topographic models were incorporated into simulations in near real time. The model provided promising results that were shared regularly at stakeholder meetings with the monitoring personnel, scientists and civil-protection representatives helping to identify potential short-term and long-term lava hazards. This included evaluation of the timing of barrier overflow and the filling and spilling of lava from one valley to another. During the crisis the MrLavaLoba model was updated to increase functionality such as by considering multiple active vents. Following the eruption, the model was optimized substantially, decreasing the computational time required for the simulations and speeding up the delivery of final products.70 12 - PublicationOpen AccessThe EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase(2023)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;; ; ;; ; ;; ;; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ;; ;; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ;; ;The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) develops exascale transition capabilities in the domain of Solid Earth, an area of geophysics rich in computational challenges embracing different approaches to exascale (capability, capacity, and urgent computing). The first implementation phase of the project (ChEESE-1P; 2018–2022) addressed scientific and technical computational challenges in seismology, tsunami science, volcanology, and magnetohydrodynamics, in order to understand the phenomena, anticipate the impact of natural disasters, and contribute to risk management. The project initiated the optimisation of 10 community flagship codes for the upcoming exascale systems and implemented 12 Pilot Demonstrators that combine the flagship codes with dedicated workflows in order to address the underlying capability and capacity computational challenges. Pilot Demonstrators reaching more mature Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) were further enabled in operational service environments on critical aspects of geohazards such as long-term and short-term probabilistic hazard assessment, urgent computing, and early warning and probabilistic forecasting. Partnership and service co-design with members of the project Industry and User Board (IUB) leveraged the uptake of results across multiple research institutions, academia, industry, and public governance bodies (e.g. civil protection agencies). This article summarises the implementation strategy and the results from ChEESE-1P, outlining also the underpinning concepts and the roadmap for the on-going second project implementation phase (ChEESE-2P; 2023–2026).395 39 - PublicationOpen AccessDigital Twins Components for Geophysical Extreme Phenomena: the example of Vlcanic Hzards within the DT-GEO projec(2023)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; The project Digital Twin for GEOphysical extremes-(DT-GEO) aims to use Digital Twin Components to create replicas of physical systems, serving as a virtual laboratory to study natural extreme events. The ratio- nale is the intrinsic risks of potentially catastrophic events to anthropic activities, infrastructures, and cultural heritage. In the framework of the project, this paper describes, how the DTC workflow architecture is designed, focusing on flexibility, scalability, and maintainability, and how it is further developed. To demonstrate how ICT efforts can expand horizons in Geosciences, an application to volcanic hazard is presented taking as a case study the 2019 volcanic eruption of Raikoke (Kuril Islands).185 20 - PublicationRestrictedObservations and Retrievals of Volcanic Ash Clouds Using Ground- and Satellite-Based Sensors(2023)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;This work was born from a wish of remembering the fundamental contribution of Prof. Frank Silvio Marzano to the field of physical volcanology. In fact, for the last fifteen years and in the context of several European projects, Prof. Marzano collaborated with many volcanologists as well as scientists from different fields and wrote many scientific articles aimed at studying the dynamics of explosive eruptions. He left his imprinting in this research sector laying the foundations of radar volcanology in Italy, and extended his studies to other sensors. His work is relevant for the analysis of the main eruption source parameters needed to characterize the eruptive events. Here we show how remote sensing instruments applied to analyze explosive activity of different volcanoes worldwide, are going to increase the knowledge in this multidisciplinary research area and the awareness from the scientific community of the potential of these sensors at various wavelengths.85 1 - PublicationOpen AccessSurveying volcanic crises exercises: From open-question questionnaires to a prototype checklist(2023)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;Volcanic crisis exercises are usually run to test response capabilities, communication protocols, and decision-making procedures by agencies with responsibilities to cope with scenarios of volcanic unrest with inherent uncertainty, such as volcano observatories and/or civil protection authorities. During the last decades, the use of questionnaires has been increased to evaluate people’s knowledge on volcanic hazards and their perception of risk, to better understand their preparedness to respond to emergency measures plans. In this paper, we present a study carried out within the European Network of Observatories and Research Infrastructures for Volcanology project (EUROVOLC) focused on extracting information on the experience gained during volcanic-crisis exercises by the project’s participants and beyond. An open-ended question questionnaire was firstly distributed for a survey within the project community. Through the results obtained, we developed a user-friendly online multi-choice questionnaire that was submitted to the volcanological communities within and outside EUROVOLC. Analyzing the answers to the online questionnaire, we extracted a prototype checklist for guiding the design of such exercises in the future. Our results confirm this type of survey as a very useful tool for gathering information on participants’ experience and knowledge, able to understand which data and information may be useful when designing exercises for scientists, emergency managers and decision makers. In particular, the main lessons learnt regard the need i) to increase training activities involving people exposed to volcanic hazards and media, ii) to improve external communication tools (between players and public/media), equipment and protocols and iii) to better define decision-makers’ needs.47 18 - PublicationOpen AccessGuidelines for volcano-observatory operations during crises: recommendations from the 2019 volcano observatory best practices meeting(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;; ; ; ;In November 2019, the fourth meeting on Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop was held in Mexico City as a series of talks, discussions, and panels. Volcanologists from around the world offered suggestions for ways to optimize volcano-observatory crisis operations. By crisis, we mean unrest that may or may not lead to eruption, the eruption itself, or its aftermath, all of which require analysis and communications by the observatory. During a crisis, the priority of the observatory should be to acquire, process, analyze, and interpret data in a timely manner. A primary goal is to communicate effectively with the authorities in charge of civil protection. Crisis operations should rely upon exhaustive planning in the years prior to any actual unrest or eruptions. Ideally, nearly everything that observatories do during a crisis should be envisioned, prepared, and practiced prior to the actual event. Pre-existing agreements and exercises with academic and government collaborators will minimize confusion about roles and responsibilities. In the situation where planning is unfinished, observatories should prioritize close ties and communications with the land and civil-defense authorities near the most threatening volcanoes.312 136 - PublicationOpen AccessThe integrated multidisciplinary European volcano infrastructure: from the conception to the implementation(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;Recent decades have highlighted the increasing need to connect and strengthen the volcanology community at European level. Indeed, research in the volcanology field is highly qualified in Europe and the volcano monitoring infrastructures have achieved valuable know-how, becoming the state-of-the-art in the world. However, the lack of common good practices in sciences and technologies, missing standards, as well as a significant fragmentation of the community requires coordination to move forward and guarantee a trans-national harmonisation. The European Plate Observing System (EPOS) represented the first opportunity to initiate this process of coordination by encouraging the creation of a European volcanological scientific infrastructure for data and service sharing. During the preparation and the design of EPOS, the volcanology community identified the objectives and the needs of the community building, the services to be provided and the work plan to implement the infrastructure. To achieve this aim, the contribution from three European projects FUTUREVOLC, MED-SUV and EUROVOLC was essential. This paper presents the main steps performed during the last years for building the community and implementing the infrastructure. This paper also describes the strategic choices and actions taken to realise the infrastructure such as the establishment of the Volcano Observation Thematic Core Service (TCS), whose structure and activity are described.145 69 - PublicationOpen AccessLong-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;; ; ;; Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.407 18
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