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Carafa, Michele Matteo Cosimo
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Carafa, Michele Matteo Cosimo
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Carafa, Michele M. C.
Carafa, Michele
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michele.carafa@ingv.it
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staff
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55949208900
35 results
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- PublicationOpen AccessA “Geodetic Gap” in the Calabrian Arc: Evidence for a Locked Subduction Megathrust?(2018)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; Subduction of old Ionian seafloor beneath the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy) is the geological process with the greatest mass flux in the central Mediterranean, yet its seismogenic behavior is largely obscured. No unambiguous evidence of subduction-related earthquakes exists in historical times, and local GPS velocities indicate very low strain rates. Nevertheless, the region hosted some of the deadliest normal-faulting earthquakes of the entire Mediterranean basin. We show that the low strain rates recorded in southern Calabria can be reconciled with the regional vigorous seismic moment release by assuming high interseismic coupling but low seismic coupling of the subduction interface. The alternative scenario of steadily creeping subduction cannot be ruled out but requires the historical seismicity record to be dismissed as unrepresentative. We refer to the peculiar spatial pattern of short-term strain rates in southern Calabria as a “geodetic gap” resulting from destructive interference between upper-plate extension and temporary compression due to locking along the subduction interface. Seismic hazard modelers must understand that within such gaps, the long-term seismic hazard is greater than that suggested by the low geodetic strain rates.585 51 - PublicationRestrictedDetermining rheology from deformation data: The case of central Italy(2011)
; ; ;Carafa, M. M. C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Barba, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; The study of geodynamics relies on an understanding of the strength of the lithosphere. However, our knowledge of kilometer‐scale rheology has generally been obtained from centimeter‐sized laboratory samples or from microstructural studies of naturally deformed rocks. In this study, we present a method that allows rheological examination at a larger scale. Utilizing forward numerical modeling, we simulated lithospheric deformation as a function of heat flow and rheological parameters and computed several testable predictions including horizontal velocities, stress directions, and the tectonic regime. To select the best solutions, we compared the model predictions with experimental data. We applied this method in Italy and found that the rheology shows significant variations at small distances. The strength ranged from 0.6 ± 0.2 TN/m within the Apennines belt to 21 ± 6 TN/m in the external Adriatic thrust. These strength values correspond to an aseismic mantle in the upper plate and to a strong mantle within the Adriatic lithosphere. With respect to the internal thrust, we found that strike‐slip or transpressive, but not compressive, earthquakes can occur along the deeper portion of the thrust. The differences in the lithospheric strength are greater than our estimated uncertainties and occur across the Adriatic subduction margin. Using the proposed method, the lithospheric strength can be also determined when information at depth is scarce but sufficient surface data are available. Citation: Carafa, M. M. C., and S. Barba (2011), Determining rheology from deformation data: The case of central Italy, Tectonics, 30, TC2003, doi:10.1029/2010TC002680.261 19 - PublicationOpen AccessPartitioning the Ongoing Extension of the Central Apennines (Italy): Fault Slip Rates and Bulk Deformation Rates From Geodetic and Stress Data(2020)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; We investigated whether the joint inversion of geodetic and stress direction data can constrain long‐term fault slip rates in the central Apennines, and ultimately how extension is partitioned among fault slip and bulk lithosphere permanent strain. Geodetic velocities are collected in the fault interseismic stage with steady secular deformation; thus, long‐term estimates can be derived with a model of elastically unloading seismogenic faults within a viscously deforming lithosphere. As the average spacing of permanent Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations is similar to the average length of seismogenic faults (25–35 km), if not larger, we decided to merge permanent and temporary GNSS measurements, resulting in a denser geodetic data set. Given that most normal faults in the Apennines have slip rates around or below 1 mm/a, and most campaign GNSS velocities carry similar uncertainties, simple local back slip models cannot be applied. More sophisticated modeling is required to extract reasonable bulk deformation rates and long‐term fault slip rates at signal‐to‐noise ratio of order unity. Given the spatial distribution of the GNSS network, we estimated the long‐term slip rate of seven major fault systems that are in satisfactory agreement with available geological slip rates. The resulting spatial distribution of bulk deformation rates locally fits short‐term transients; in other cases, they represent the currently unclear signature of tectonic processes like upper‐crustal viscoplastic deformation and aseismic slip, or indicate missing faults in the adopted database. We conclude that the time is ripe for determining fault slip rates using geodetic and stress direction data, particularly where fault activity rates are hard to determine geologically.530 80 - PublicationOpen AccessA meta-analysis of fault slip rates across the central Apennines(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Several methods such as paleoseismic trenching, mapping of offset geomorphic markers, and dating of scarp profiles have been used to determine slip rates of normal faults in the central Apennines. Combining measurements obtained with different methods remains challenging because non-tectonic processes can introduce noise or spurious signals that are elusive to quantify, and these influence slip rate estimates. To this end, we meta-analyzed throw measurements with associated ages collected in the central Apennines with several methods to quantify such erratic fluctuations and method-related variances. We show that throw rates are overdispersed with respect to nominal uncertainties in throw and age; therefore, they are commonly affected by unmodeled noise processes. After comparing throw rate distributions sampling the same faults with different techniques, no clear spatiotemporal patterns appear, but only quasi-random noise. Assuming that field investigators sampled real tectonic features (i.e., fault scarps), we find that such erratic throw rates indicate total uncertainties are two to three times greater than the stated observation uncertainties. In this situation, a simple and robust null hypothesis is appropriate. We propose that most faults should be assumed to have uniform throw rate along their traces, except for possible tapering near unconnected ends. We also propose that models in which throw rates are time-dependent (within the last 25 ka) are not yet justified. Then, relying on the estimated total uncertainties, we determine the most probable long-term fault throw rate for each active fault by combining different throw-rate probability density functions.170 19 - PublicationOpen AccessFault slip rates for the active External Dinarides thrust-and-fold belt(2012-06-28)
; ; ;Kastelic, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Carafa, M. M. C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; We present estimates of slip rates for active faults in the External Dinarides. This thrust-and-fold belt formed in the Adria-Eurasia collision zone by the progressive formation of NE-dipping thrusts in the footwalls of older structures. We calculated the long-term horizontal velocity field, slip rates and related uncertainties for active faults using a thin-shell finite element method. We incorporated active faults with different effective fault frictions, rheological properties, appropriate geodynamic boundary conditions, laterally varying heat flow and topography. The results were obtained by comparing the modeled maximum compressive horizontal stress orientations with the World Stress Map database. The calculated horizontal velocities decrease from the southeastern External Dinarides to the northwestern parts of the thrust-and-fold belt. This spatial pattern is also evident in the long-term slip rates of active faults. The highest slip rate was obtained for the Montenegro active fault, while the lowest rates were obtained for active faults in northwestern Slovenia. Low slip rates, influenced by local active diapirism, are also characteristic for active faults in the offshore central External Dinarides. These findings are contradictory to the concept of Adria as an internally rigid, aseismic lithospheric block because the faults located in its interior release a part of the regional compressive stress. We merged the modeling results and available slip rate estimates to obtain a composite solution for slip rates.275 361 - PublicationOpen AccessSHINE: Web Application for Determining the Horizontal Stress Orientation(2014)
; ; ; ;Carafa, M. M. C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Tarabusi, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Kastelic, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; ; Interpolating the orientation of the maximum horizontal compressive stress with a well-established procedure is fundamental in understanding the present-day stress field. This paper documents the design principles, strategies and architecture of SHINE (http://shine.rm.ingv.it/), a web-based application for determining the maximum horizontal compressive stress orientation. The interpolation using SHINE can be carried out from a global database or from a custom file uploaded by the user. SHINE satisfies the usability requirements by striving for effectiveness, efficiency and satisfaction as defined by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) covering ergonomics of human-computer interactions. Our main goal was to build a web-based application with a strong “outside-in” strategy in order to make the interpolation technique available to a wide range of Earth Science disciplines. SHINE is an easy-to-use web application with a straightforward interface guaranteeing quick visualization of the results, which are downloadable in several formats. SHINE is offered as an easy and convenient web service encouraging global data sharing and scientific research collaboration. Within this paper, we present a possible use of SHINE, determining fault kinematics compatibility with respect to the present-day stress field.882 200 - PublicationOpen AccessEditorial: Unveiling Active Faults: Multiscale Perspectives and Alternative Approaches Addressing the Seismic Hazard ChallengeInvestigations of seismic hazard across the range of tectonic environments on Earth are challenging because they require high quality data from multiple disciplines (e.g., seismology, structural geology, geomorphology, geochronology, archaeology, and geodesy) covering a wide range of temporal (days to millennial) and spatial (e.g., microns to hundreds of kilometers) scales and because seismogenic conditions and drivers are variable and fluctuating. The international earthquake science community has become more inter-disciplinary over the past several decades with the establishment of collaborative geological and geophysical centers such as (but not limited to) the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC, https://www.scec.org/), United States Geological Survey (USGS, https://earthquake.usgs.gov/), the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV, https://www.ingv.it/), the Interuniversity Center for 3D Seismotectonics with territorial applications (CRUST, https://www.crust.unich.it/). Collaborations along with improvements in data sources such as the implementation of denser seismic and geodetic arrays, high resolution (meter-scale and better) topographic data, improvements in geochronology, and the widespread availability of catalogued geophysical data, all present opportunities to unveil new details about active faulting. With that in mind, we proposed this Frontiers in Earth Science Research Topic as a venue for publishing disparate approaches for addressing seismic hazard. This Research Topic includes sixteen published articles investigating diverse tectonic regions of the Earth, at different time- and resolution scales, spanning from low-to-fast deformation rates contexts, using complementary data approaches spanning from earthquake geology to seismology, seismotectonics, and geomechanics (Figure 1). Here we provide a short review of the contributions organized by the investigation’s primary methodology.
79 27 - PublicationRestrictedMid-term review results of the ESA STSE Pathfinder CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS)(2015)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Merryman Boncori, J. P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Devoti, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Visini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Carafa, M. M. C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Pezzo, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Fornaro, G.; IREA, CNR ;Berardino, P.; IREA, CNR ;Atzori, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;D'Amico, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Kastelic, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Meletti, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Pietrantonio, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Riguzzi, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Salvi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Fernandez Prieto, D.; European Space Agency; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; We probe the feasibility of integrating GPS and Synthetic Aperture Radar deformation rates within the seismic hazard models of the central Apennines (Italy), exploiting data from over 100 GPS stations and the ~20- year long ERS and ENVISAT SAR image archive. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.1247 49 - PublicationOpen AccessInterseismic ground velocities in Central Apennines from GPS and InSAR measurements: new contributions for seismic hazard models by preliminary results of ESA CHARMING project(2015)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Pezzo, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Merryman Boncori, J. P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Visini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Carafa, M. M. C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Devoti, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Atzori, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Kastelic, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Berardino, P.; IREA, CNR ;Fornaro, G.; IREA, CNR ;Riguzzi, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Pietrantonio, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;D'Amico, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Meletti, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Salvi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; The contribution of space geodetic techniques to interseismic velocity estimation, and thus seismic hazard modelling, has been recognized since two decades and made possible in more recent years by the increased availability and accuracy of geodetic measurements. We present the preliminary results of a feasibility study performed within the CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS), funded by the European Space Agency (ESA). For a 200 km x 200 km study area, covering the Abruzzi region (central Italy) we measure the mean surface deformation rates from Synthetic Aperture Radar and GPS, finding several local to regional deformation gradients consistent with the tectonic context. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.1435 499 - PublicationRestrictedStatic stress drop as determined from geodetic strain rates and statistical seismicity(2011)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Caporali, A.; Dipartimento di Geoscienze, Università di Padova, Padua, Italy ;Barba, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Carafa, M. M. C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Devoti, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Pietrantonio, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Riguzzi, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; ; ; ; ; Two critical items in the energetic budget of a seismic province are the strain rate, which is measured geodetically on the Earth's surface, and the yearly number of earthquakes exceeding a given magnitude. Our study is based on one of the most complete and recent seismic catalogs of Italian earthquakes and on the strain rate map implied by a multiyear velocity solution for permanent GPS stations. For each of 36 homogeneous seismic zones we use the appropriate Gutenberg-Richter relation, which is based on the seismicity catalog, to estimate a seismic strain rate, which is the strain rate associated with the mechanical work due to a coseismic displacement. We show that for each seismic zone, the volume storing most of the elastic energy associated with the long-term deformation, and hence the seismic strain rate, is inversely proportional to the static stress drop. The GPS-derived strain rate for each seismic zone limits the corresponding seismic strain rate, and an upper bound for the average stress drop is estimated. We show that the implied regional static stress drop varies from 0.1 to 5.7 MPa for catalog earthquakes in the moment magnitude range [4.5–7.3]. The stress drop results are independent of the regional a and b parameters and heat flow but are very sensitive to the assumed maximum magnitude of a seismic province. The data do not rule out the hypothesis that the stress drop positively correlates with the time elapsed after the largest earthquake recorded in each seismic zone.256 27