Global Volume Distribution for Subaerial Volcanism on Earth

Abstract

Knowledge of the global distribution of Earth volcanism is critical in many fields of the Geosciences involving large-scale assessments, such as plate tectonics, global volcanic hazards, and climate change. Recent analysis has revealed that global eruption inter-event times are exponentially distributed, implying that on the global scale volcanic eruptions are Poisson distributed. Here, we employ those findings to calibrate a continuous frequency-volume distribution for subaerial eruptions of any size on Earth from small lava flows to super-eruptions. Obtaining such a continuous global distribution implies considering the existing data and the way they are collected and categorized into databases, as well as extending the available eruption volume data to eruption VEI classes less than 4. The continuous global distribution shows an initial log-normal section up to volumes of about 170 Mm3, followed by a power-law section, tapered on its extreme right-end side, encompassing about five orders of magnitude of eruption volumes. The potential implications are discussed in terms of short-term eruption forecasts of the size of an impending eruption, critical for volcanic emergency management.