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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/12470
Authors: | Parsons, Tom* Geist, Eric L.* Console, Rodolfo* Carluccio, Roberto* |
Title: | Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distributions on Faults Calculated From Consensus Data in California | Journal: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth | Series/Report no.: | 12/123(2018) | Issue Date: | 2018 | DOI: | 10.1029/2018JB016539 | Abstract: | An estimate of the expected earthquake rate at all possible magnitudes is needed for seismic hazard forecasts. Regional earthquake magnitude frequency distributions obey a negative exponential law (Gutenberg-Richter), but it is unclear if individual faults do. We add three new methods to calculate long-term California earthquake rupture rates to the existing Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 efforts to assess method and parameter dependence on magnitude frequency results for individual faults. All solutions show strongly characteristic magnitude-frequency distributions on the San Andreas and other faults, with higher rates of large earthquakes than would be expected from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. This is a necessary outcome that results from fitting high fault slip rates under the overall statewide earthquake rate budget. We find that input data choices can affect the nucleation magnitude-frequency distribution shape for the San Andreas Fault; solutions are closer to a Gutenberg-Richter distribution if the maximum magnitude allowed for earthquakes that occur away from mapped faults (background events) is raised above the consensus threshold of M = 7.6, if the moment rate for background events is reduced, or if the overall maximum magnitude is reduced from M = 8.5. We also find that participation magnitudefrequency distribution shapes can be strongly affected by slip rate discontinuities along faults that may be artifacts related to segment boundaries. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Parsons_et_al-2018-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth.pdf | 4.27 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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