Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10805
Authors: | Taroni, Matteo* Marzocchi, Warner* Roselli, Pamela* |
Title: | Assessing ‘alarm-based CN’ earthquake predictions in Italy | Journal: | Annals of Geophysics | Series/Report no.: | /59 (2016) | Issue Date: | 2016 | DOI: | 10.4401/ag-6889 | Abstract: | The quantitative assessment of the performance of earthquake prediction and/or forecast models is essential for evaluating their applicability for risk reduction purposes. Here we assess the earthquake prediction performance of the CN model applied to the Italian territory. This model has been widely publicized in Italian news media, but a careful assessment of its prediction performance is still lacking. In this paper we evaluate the results obtained so far from the CN algorithm applied to the Italian territory, by adopting widely used testing procedures and under development in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) network. Our results show that the CN prediction performance is com- parable to the prediction performance of the stationary Poisson model, that is, CN predictions do not add more to what may be expected from random chance. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
AG_Taroni_etal_2016.pdf | 900.71 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
3
checked on Feb 7, 2021
Page view(s)
188
checked on Apr 24, 2024
Download(s)
133
checked on Apr 24, 2024