COMET. Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

A spatially dense GNSS-based crustal velocity field for the Iberian Peninsula and Northern Africa allow us to provide new insights into two main tectonic processes currently occurring in this area. In particular, we provide, for the first time, clear evidence for a large-scale clockwise rotation of the Iberian Peninsula with respect to stable Eurasia (Euler pole component: N42.612°, W1.833°, clockwise rotation rate of 0.07 deg/Myr). We favour the interpretation that this pattern reflects the quasi-continuous straining of the ductile lithosphere in some sectors of South and Western Iberia in response to viscous coupling of the NW Nubia and Iberian plate boundary in the Gulf of Cádiz. We furnish evidence for a fragmentation of the western Mediterranean basin into independent crustal tectonic blocks, which are delimited by inherited lithospheric shear structures. Among these blocks, an (oceanic-like western) Algerian one is currently transferring a significant fraction of the Nubia-Eurasia convergence rate into the Eastern Betics (SE Iberia) and likely causing the eastward motion of the Baleares Promontory. These processes can be mainly explained by spatially variable lithospheric plate forces imposed along the Nubia-Eurasia convergence boundary.

Volcano observatories provide near real-time information and, ultimately, forecasts about volcano activity. For this reason, multiple physical and chemical parameters are continuously monitored. Here, we present a new method to efficiently estimate the location and evolution of magmatic sources based on a stream of real-time surface deformation data, such as High-Rate GPS, and a free-geometry magmatic source model. The tool allows tracking inflation and deflation sources in time, providing estimates of where a volcano might erupt, which is important in understanding an on-going crisis. We show a successful simulated application to the pre-eruptive period of May 2008, at Mount Etna (Italy). The proposed methodology is able to track the fast dynamics of the magma migration by inverting the real-time data within seconds. This general method is suitable for integration in any volcano observatory. The method provides first order unsupervised and realistic estimates of the locations of magmatic sources and of potential eruption sites, information that is especially important for civil protection purposes.