Riccardi, Umberto

The great potential of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) in monitoring ground deformation is widely recognized. As with other geophysical data, GNSS time series can be significantly noisy, hiding elusive ground deformation signals. Several denoising techniques have been proposed to improve the signal-to-noise ratio over the years. One of the most effective denoising techniques has been proved to be multi-resolution decomposition through the discrete wavelet transform. However, wavelet analysis requires long data sets to be effective, as well as long computation times, that hinder its use as a real or near real-time monitoring tool. We propose training by a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to perform the equivalent of wavelet analysis to overcome these limitations. Once trained, the CNN model provides answers within seconds, making it feasible as a real-time data analysis tool. Our Machine Learning algorithm is tested on daily GNSS time series collected in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), which is a highly volcanic risk area. Without significant gaps, the retrieved RMSE and R2 values vary in the ranges 0.65–0.98 and 0.06–0.52 cm, respectively. These results are encouraging, as they hint at the possibility of applying this methodology in more effective real-time monitoring solutions for active volcanoes.

We report on the results of about 9 months of gravimetric recordings acquired at Mt. Somma-Vesuvius (SV) volcano (Southern Italy) with the new generation relative gravimeter gPhoneX#116 (gPh#116), which is a gravimeter specifically designed for continuous gravity recording. We also present the outcomes of an intercomparison experiment of the gPhone#116 conducted at the J9 gravity observatory in Strasbourg (France). In this intercomparison, we were able to check the scale factor of the meter with a high degree of precision by means of an intercomparison with 2 superconducting gravimeters (SGs) and a FG5-type absolute ballistic gravimeter. Multiple calibration approaches allowed us to validate the manufacturer's original calibration constants to a level of 1% accuracy and 0.1% precision. Moreover, we carried out a comparative study of the noise level of the gPh#116 with respect to the SGs and other spring meters routinely used in both prospecting and time-lapse gravimetry. It turns out that gPh#116 exhibits lower levels at hourly time-scales than other compared spring gravimeters (Graviton, gPhone#054, Scintrex-CG5). It was also possible to carry out a detailed study of the instrumental drift, a crucial topic for reliable monitoring of the long-term gravity variations in active volcanic areas. In fact, a challenge in time-lapse gravimetry is the proper separation of the instrumental variations from real gravity changes eventually attributable to recharge or drainage processes of magma or fluids in the feeding systems of active volcanoes. A negative finding coming out from the intercomparison is that, even when applying the tilt correction, the gravimetric residuals obtained with the gPh#116 are an order of magnitude larger and quite inconsistent with those obtained with co-located superconducting gravimeters. We guess this problem could be overcome by installing the gravimeter on an auto-levelling platform. From the analysis of the gravity records, a reliable tidal gravity model was derived, which we believe will help to improve the accuracy of volcano monitoring, as it will allow appropriate correction of tidal effects for both relative and absolute gravity measurements acquired in the area. Two further interesting elements arose from our study: (1) a peculiar cavity effect of the SV underground laboratory that seems to influence the tilt change; (2) the small residual gravity signals are time correlated with the rainfall peaks and are compatible with gravity decreases induced by increases in soil moisture above the gravimeter.

We report on about 20 yr of relative gravity measurements, acquired on Mt. Somma–Vesuvius volcano in order to investigate the hydrological and volcano-tectonic processes controlling the present-day activity of the volcano. The retrieved long-term field of time gravity change (2003–2022) shows a pattern essentially related to the subsidence, which have affected the central part of the volcano, as detected by the permanent GNSS network and InSAR data. After reducing the observations for the effect of vertical deformation, no significant residuals are found, indicating no significant mass accumulation or loss within the volcanic system. In the north-western sector of the study area, at the border of the volcano edifice, however, significant residual positive gravity changes are detected which are associated to ground-water rebound after years of intense exploitation of the aquifers. On the seasonal timescale, we find that stations within the caldera rim are affected by the seasonal hydrological effects, while the gravity stations at the base of the Vesuvius show a less clear correlation. Furthermore, within the caldera rim a multiyear gravity transient is detected with an increase phase lasting about 4 yr followed by a slower decrease phase. Analysis of rain data seem to exclude a hydrological origin, hence, we hypothesize a deeper source related to the geothermal activity, which can be present even if the volcano is in a quiescent state. We infer the depth and volume of the source by inverting the spatial pattern of the gravity field at the peak of the transient. A volume of fluids of 9.5 × 107 m3 with density of 1000 kg m−3 at 2.3 km depth is capable to fit reasonably well the observations. To explain the gravity transient, simple synthetic models are produced, that simulate the ascent of fluids from a deep reservoir up to the depth of 2.3 km and a successive diffusion within the carbonate aquifer hosting the geothermal system. The whole process appears to not significantly affect the seismicity rate and the deformation of the volcano. This study demonstrates the importance of a 4-D gravity monitoring of a volcano to understand its complex gravity signals that cover different spatial and temporal scales. Discriminating the different contributions that mix up in the observed gravity changes, in particular those due to hydrologic/anthropogenic activities form those due to the geothermal dynamics, is fundamental for a complete and reliable evaluation of the volcano state.

Studying the spatiotemporal distribution and motion of water vapour (WV), the most variable greenhouse gas in the troposphere, is pivotal, not only for meteorology and climatology, but for geodesy, too. In fact, WV variability degrades, in an unpredictable way, almost all geodetic observation based on the propagation of electromagnetic signal through the atmosphere. We use data collected on a dense GPS network, designed for the purposes of monitoring the active Neapolitan (Italy) volcanoes, to retrieve the tropospheric delay parameters and precipitable water vapour (PWV). This study has two main targets: (a) the analysis of long datasets (11 years) to extract trends of climatological meaning for the region; (b) studying the main features of the time evolution of the PWV during heavy raining events to gain knowledge on the preparatory stages of highly impacting thunderstorms. For the latter target, both differential and precise point positioning (PPP) techniques are used, and the results are compared and critically discussed. An increasing trend, amounting to about 2 mm/decades, has been recognized in the PWV time series, which is in agreement with the results achieved in previous studies for the Mediterranean area. A clear topographic effect is detected for the Vesuvius volcano sector of the network and a linear relationship between PWV and altitude is quantitatively assessed. This signature must be taken into account in any modelling for the atmospheric correction of geodetic and remote-sensing data (e.g., InSAR). Characteristic temporal evolutions were recognized in the PWV in the targeted thunderstorms (which occurred in 2019 and 2020), i.e., a sharp increase a few hours before the main rain event, followed by a rapid decrease when the thunderstorm vanished. Accounting for such a peculiar trend in the PWV could be useful for setting up possible early warning systems for those areas prone to flash flooding, thus potentially providing a tool for disaster risk reduction.

We simulate the deformation of Somma-Vesuvius volcano due to some overpressure sources by means of a finite element 3D code. The main goal of these simulations is to investigate the influence of topography and structural heterogeneity on ground deformation. In our model the sources of deformation are embedded in an elastic linear isotropic medium and located at various depths. Geometry (shape and lateral extension) of the sources is mainly constrained by the results coming from recent seismic tomography studies. The structural heterogeneity has been modelled in terms of dynamic elastic parameters (Young’s modulus) retrieved from previous seismic tomography and gravity studies. A highresolution digital terrain model is used for the topography of the volcano subaerial edifice. Evidences from our results suggest that real topography and structural heterogeneities are key factors governing the ground deformation, which often turns being one of the most relevant problems in volcano monitoring. A large deviation from the axially symmetrical model of the displacement field is the main result of our modelling. Such an asymmetry is routinely unaccounted for when Mogi’s simplistic modelling in a homogeneous medium with simplified topography is used. Our study clearly demonstrate that a better knowledge of deformation patterns can significantly help in the location of monitoring sensors as well as in the design of an efficient geodetic network.

In this study, we investigate the oscillations of relative sea level through the analysis of tide gauge records about 10-year long collected in the Gulfs of Pozzuoli and Napoli (Southern Italy). The main goal of this study is to provide a suitable resolution model of the sea tides including low frequency (seiches), tidal bands and non-linear tides. The spectral analyses of the tide gauge records lead us to identify a number of seiche periods some of them already known from the literature and some other unknown. Furthermore, we target a non-conventional purpose of the tidal analysis, namely extracting from the tide gauge records the volcanotectonic signal (vertical ground displacement) in the resurgent Campi Flegrei caldera. We suggest a method to filter out the volcano-tectonic signal (bradyseism) from the tide gauge records by deconvolving it from two records, one collected in the active volcanic area (Pozzuoli) and the other one collected in a tectonically stable station (Napoli), located beyond the caldera rim. Finally, we retrieve the relative mean sea level change in the Gulf of Naples and compare it with the trend found in five tide gauges spread along the Italian coast.

Following the 2004 seismic unrest at Tenerife and the 2011–2012 submarine eruption at El Hierro, the number of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observation sites in the Canary Islands (Spain) has increased, offering scientists a useful tool with which to infer the kinematics and present-day surface deformation of the Canary sector of the Atlantic Ocean. We take advantage of the common-mode component filtering technique to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of the velocities retrieved from the daily solutions of 18 permanent GNSS stations distributed in the Canaries. The analysis of GNSS time series spanning the period 2011–2017 enabled us to characterize major regions of deformation along the archipelago through the mapping of the 2D infinitesimal strain field. By applying the triangular segmentation approach to GNSS velocities, we unveil a variable kinematic behaviour within the islands. The retrieved extension pattern shows areas of maximum deformation west of Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura. For the submarine main seismogenic fault between Tenerife and Gran Canaria, we simulated the horizontal deformation and strain due to one of the strongest (mbLg 5.2) earthquakes of the region. The seismic areas between islands, mainly offshore Tenerife and Gran Canaria, seem mainly influenced by the regional tectonic stress, not the local volcanic activity. In addition, the analysis of the maximum shear strain confirms that the regional stress field influences the E–W and NE–SW tectonic lineaments, which, in accordance with the extensional and compressional tectonic regimes identified, might favour episodes of volcanism in the Canary Islands.

We propose a thermo-fluid-dynamics model to study some recent uplift episodes occurred in the period 2008–2013 at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Accounting for eight overpressure sources (from 5 to 40 MPa) in the hydrothermal system, our model solves for heat and momentum balances to obtain fluid velocities responsible for the observed ground displacement. For a validation of the model we use a dataset from seven continuous GNSS stations of the Neapolitan Volcanoes Continuous GPS network (NeVoCGPS), belonging to a geodetic monitoring system covering the Neapolitan volcanic area, and operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. We compare the observed and modelled vertical displacements to assess “threshold” values for the vertical ground accelerations below which ground displacements could be described with the classic fluid-dynamics equations applied to the hydrothermal system without invoking a direct magmatic contribution. We find out that below 280 mm/yr2 the observed ground acceleration can be explained as just due to the interaction between the deep magmatic and hydrothermal systems. On the contrary, for values exceeding the modelled “threshold”, the direct magmatic contribution can be likely invoked as source of the ground deformations. Through this study, we target to contribute to the debate on the origin of the observed ground deformation, mainly to separate the effects of hydrothermal perturbations, caused by the injection of deep magmatic fluids into the aquifer, from the direct magma intrusion.

We report on a detailed geodetic continuous monitoring in Timanfaya volcanic area (TVA), where the most intense geothermal anomalies of Lanzarote Island are located. Weanalyze about three years of GNSS data collected on a small network of five permanent stations, one ofwhich at TVA, deployed on the island, and nearly 20 years of tiltmeter and strainmeter records acquired at Los Camelleros site settled in the facilities of the Geodynamics Laboratory of Lanzarote within TVA. This study is intended to contribute to understanding the active tectonics on Lanzarote Island and its origin, mainly in TVA. After characterizing and filtering out the seasonal periodicities related to “non-tectonic” sources from the geodetic records, a tentative ground deformation field is reconstructed through the analysis of both tilt, strain records and the time evolution of the baselines ranging the GNSS stations. The joint interpretation of the collected geodetic data showthat the area of the strongest geothermal anomaly in TVA is currently undergoing a SE trending relative displacement at a rate of about 3mm/year. This area even experiences a significant subsidence with a maximum rate of about 6 mm/year. Moreover, we examine the possible relation between the observed deformations and atmospheric effects bymodelling the response functions of temperature and rain recorded in the laboratory. Finally, fromthe retrieval of the deformation patterns and the joint analysis of geodetic and environmental observations, we propose a qualitative model of the interplaying role between the hydrological systems and the geothermal anomalies. Namely, we explain the detected time correlation between rainfall and ground deformation because of the enhancement of the thermal transfer fromthe underground heat sourcedriven by the infiltration of meteoric water.

In this paper, we analyze the tropospheric delay observed on some ground-based CGPS stations in a dense small regional network and its time evolution during extreme weather conditions. In particular, we studied two severe weather events occurring in the Campanian Region (Italy) on October 12, 2012 and December 2, 2014, reaching 42 and 28 mm rainfall during about 1 h at Naples (MAFE) and Gragnano (GRAG) stations respectively. The main concern of this study is the retrieval of the precipitable water (PW) from co-located GPS and meteorological stations. We investigate the correlation between PW and rain amount at ground level. We analyse phase residuals for each visible GPS satellite using sky plots of the phase residuals along the GPS satellites tracks, showing that the two phenomena are shown in the phase residual plots. Moreover, we compare PWdata retrieved from observed meteorological data and from models (GPT2 and ECMWF), evidencing that there is a need for co-located CGPS and weather stations to improve the assessment of water content in the troposphere.