Use of Engineering Seismology Tools in Ground Shaking Scenarios.

Abstract

We review the role of some key factors governing estimation of the spatial distribution of ground motions, as a basis for constructing earthquake loss scenarios. Attention is devoted first to the selection of ground motion descriptors, and to general features of GIS - based peak acceleration maps derived from attenuation relations and a geotechnical zonation, stressing the role of sensitivity analyses based on predicted damage. Arias intensity maps are also considered, in the context of seismic slope failure susceptibility evaluations. Among the source-related factors, we discuss the finite source representation and the rupture directivity effects, especially on Arias intensity. The differences that may be expected among empirical predictions and numerical simulations based on wave propagation models are discussed through a representative example. Throughout, the emphasis is on trying to cast the problem in terms amenable to engineering tools and applications