Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/16387
Authors: | Console, Rodolfo* Vannoli, Paola* Carluccio, Roberto* |
Title: | The 2022 Seismic Sequence in the Northern Adriatic Sea and Its Long-Term Simulation | Journal: | Applied Sciences | Series/Report no.: | /13 (2023) | Publisher: | MDPI | Issue Date: | 15-Mar-2023 | DOI: | 10.3390/app13063746 | URL: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/6/3746 | Keywords: | Numerical modelling earthquake simulator statistical methods earthquake clustering northern Adriatic Sea |
Subject Classification: | 04.07. Tectonophysics 04.06. Seismology |
Abstract: | We studied the long-term features of earthquakes caused by a fault system in the northern Adriatic sea that experienced a series of quakes beginning with two main shocks of magnitude 5.5 and 5.2 on 9 November 2022 at 06:07 and 06:08 UTC, respectively. This offshore fault system, identified through seismic reflection profiles, has a low slip rate of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr. As the historical record spanning a millennium does not extend beyond the inter-event time for the largest expected earthquakes (M ' 6.5), we used an earthquake simulator to generate a 100,000-year catalogue with 121 events of Mw 5.5. The simulation results showed a recurrence time (Tr) increasing from 800 yrs to 1700 yrs as the magnitude threshold increased from 5.5 to 6.5. However, the standard deviation s of inter-event times remained at a stable value of 700 yrs regardless of the magnitude threshold. This means that the coefficient of variation (Cv = s/Tr) decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 as the threshold magnitude increased from 5.5 to 6.5, making earthquakes more predictable over time for larger magnitudes. Our study supports the use of a renewal model for seismic hazard assessment in regions of moderate seismicity, especially when historical catalogues are not available. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Console_etal_2023_AppliedSciences.pdf | Open Access published article | 2.67 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Page view(s)
103
checked on Apr 20, 2024
Download(s)
2
checked on Apr 20, 2024