Integrating macroseismic intensity distributions with a probabilistic approach: an application in Italy

Abstract

The geographic distribution of earthquake effects quantified in terms of macroseismic intensities, the so-called macroseismic field, provides basic information for several applications including source characterization of pre-instrumental earthquakes and risk analysis. Macroseismic fields of past earthquakes as inferred from historical documentation may present spatial gaps, due to the incompleteness of the available information. We present a probabilistic approach aimed at integrating incomplete intensity distributions by considering the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties and the discrete and ordinal nature of intensity values. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for two well-known strong earthquakes (i.e., 1980 southern Italy and 2009 central Italy events). A possible application of the approach is also illustrated relative to a 16th-century earthquake in the northern Apennines.