A Bayesian Framework for Rheology Model Combination and UQ in Simulation of Geophysical Mass Flows

Abstract

In hazard assessment for geophysical mass flows, we seek to construct accurate and reliable maps that show regions with high hazard. •Acceptably accurate numerical simulation of complex geophysical mass flows is of crucial importance. •Modeling mechanical behavior of such flows or the flow rheology presents a major difficulty. •TITAN2D v. 4.0, the geophysical mass flow simulator, offers multiple well-known choices for flow rheology – Mohr-Coulomb, Pouliquen-Forterre, Voellmy-Salm. •In this contribution, we present a Bayesian framework to combine the simulation results of alternative models and quantify the uncertainty in rheology models for both experimental and natural terrain flows.