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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/13871
Authors: | Bevilacqua, Andrea* Patra, Abani* Pitman, Eric Bruce* Bursik, Marcus* Neri, Augusto* Voight, Barry* Flandoli, Franco* De Martino, Prospero* Giudicepietro, Flora* Macedonio, Giovanni* Vitale, Stefano* |
Title: | A SDE Framework for Volcanic Precursors | Issue Date: | 2019 | Keywords: | Campi Flegrei caldera eruption forecating |
Abstract: | We present two models using precursory information in the production of volcanic eruption forecasts. The first model enhances the well-established failure forecast method introducing an SDE in its formulation. The second model establishes a simple method to update prior spatial maps. The prior reproduce the two-dimensional distribution of past activity with a Gaussian Field. The likelihood relies on a one-dimensional variable characterizing the chance of material failure locally, based on the horizontal ground deformation. |
Appears in Collections: | Conference materials |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Slides_v5.pdf | 7.38 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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