The SERGISAI procedure for seismic risk assessment

Abstract

The European project SERGISAI developed a computational tool where a methodology for seismic risk assessment at different geographical scales has been implemented. Experts of various disciplines, including seismologists, engineers, planners, geologists, and computer scientists, co-operated in an actual multidisciplinary process to develop this tool. Standard procedural codes, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques compose the whole system, that will enable the end user to carry out a complete seismic risk assessment at three geographical scales: regional, sub-regional and local. At present, single codes or models that have been incorporated are not new in general, but the modularity of the prototype, based on a user-friendly front end, offers potential users the possibility of updating or replacing any code or model if desired. The proposed procedure is a first attempt to integrate tools, codes and methods for assessing expected earthquake damage, and it was mainly designed to become a useful support for civil defense and land use planning agencies. Risk factors have been treated in the most suitable way for each one, in terms of level of detail, kind of parameters and units of measure. Identifying various geographical scales is not a mere question of dimension; since entities to be studied correspond to areas defined by administrative and geographical borders. The procedure was applied in the following areas: Toscana in Italy, for the regional scale, the Garfagnana area in Toscana, for the sub-regional scale, and a part of Barcelona city, Spain, for the local scale.