Preliminary earthquake focal mechanism forecasts for the Amatrice sequence (Central Italy)

Abstract

We compare the moment tensor solutions data of the last Amatrice seismic sequence with the corresponding forecasts computed with independent information for the same territory derived from both focal mechanism catalogue and the present-day stress data (latest release). The knowledge of expected focal mechanism at the site is important to reduce the uncertainty of the Ground Motion Prediction Equation models used. For this purpose, we apply a procedure to compute, for each spatial cell, the probability to observe in the future a Normal, Reverse, and Strike-Slip event, the average distribution of the P, T, B axes and the related SHmax, for each of these types of earthquake.